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Category Archives: Federal Reserve
Dollar Demise Predicted
Joe Biden is dethroning King Dollar in real time. The US dollar’s financial dominance is under siege from a uniquely bad combination of foreign and domestic policies, and Americans should be deeply concerned by the fallout if the dollar loses its 80-year reign as the world’s reserve currency.
Fed Inflation Credibility Measured
Has the Fed lost credibility, as some people have argued (e.g., EJ Antoni)?
Guest Contribution: “The Federal Funds Rate: FOMC Projections, Policy Rule Prescriptions, and Futures Market Predictions from the September 2024 Meeting”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.
Where Will Mortgage Rates Go?
Ad hoc time series analysis.
Change in Fed Funds vs. Where the Fed Funds Should Be
At the press conference for today’s FOMC meeting, there was a lot of talk about how the 50bps drop was dramatic. That focused on the change, rather than the level…Consider what some measures of the Taylor rule (which refers to the level of the Fed funds rate) indicate.
Ten Year Treasury Yields, Dollar Index Down
Apparently some news:
Steve Kamin: “The Fed Is (Nearly) the World’s Most Hawkish Central Bank”
From the article (published 9/10), two key graphs:
JD Vance: “The political leadership of this country should have a greater say on the monetary policy of the United States”
My transcription of JD Vance’s statement re: the Fed, on “State of the Union”, interviewed by Dana Bash today. Might’ve gotten a few words wrong, but got the essence I think.
Fed Funds Path as of Noon ET
From CME: