Using 5 year ahead inflation expectations from the Michigan survey, not so much erosion in Trump 1.0. Trump 2.0 so far is another story.
Category Archives: Federal Reserve
Guest Contribution: “The Federal Funds Rate: FOMC Projections, Policy Rule Prescriptions, and Futures Market Predictions from the December 2024 Meeting”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.
Heritage’s EJ Antoni on “Cleaning House” at the Fed
“I think Trump is really holding a grudge, and rightly so” noted Antoni, “I’m not sure that there’s anything Trump can do to work with this institution [the Fed]. I think what he really needs to do is clean house.
And So It Begins: Rules vs. Discretion 2025
From AP:
…on Thursday during the World Economic Forum’s annual event in Davos, Switzerland, Trump said he would reduce oil prices, and then “I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise, they should be dropping all over the world.”
Nonsensical Graphs that People Post
Item 1:
Dollar Demise Predicted
Joe Biden is dethroning King Dollar in real time. The US dollar’s financial dominance is under siege from a uniquely bad combination of foreign and domestic policies, and Americans should be deeply concerned by the fallout if the dollar loses its 80-year reign as the world’s reserve currency.
Fed Inflation Credibility Measured
Has the Fed lost credibility, as some people have argued (e.g., EJ Antoni)?
Guest Contribution: “The Federal Funds Rate: FOMC Projections, Policy Rule Prescriptions, and Futures Market Predictions from the September 2024 Meeting”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.
Where Will Mortgage Rates Go?
Ad hoc time series analysis.
Change in Fed Funds vs. Where the Fed Funds Should Be
At the press conference for today’s FOMC meeting, there was a lot of talk about how the 50bps drop was dramatic. That focused on the change, rather than the level…Consider what some measures of the Taylor rule (which refers to the level of the Fed funds rate) indicate.