10 year Treasury yields are down 40 bps over the week.
Category Archives: Federal Reserve
Will Peter Navarro Be Right on Powell?
As noted earlier, Peter Navarro indicated Jerome Powell would be “gone in a hundred days”. Trump in a Bloomberg interview:
The Market Based SOFR Path
As of 7/15 and month ago:
“Mandate for Leadership” (aka Project 2025) on Monetary Policy
See full document here (couldn’t download from Heritage when I tried). Here’s the text for monetary policy.
Supreme Court Views on Price Stability and Full Employment
In the wake of the SCOTUS decision regarding Chevron deference, I investigate this issue. Here is a summary of academic research on Supreme Court views on these topics, separate from whether fiat money as currently established in the United States as unconstitutional (e.g., see here). I also defer discussion on whether the Federal Reserve is constitutional.
Chinn, Frankel and Ito: “The Dollar versus the Euro as International Reserve Currencies”
The abstract from article (free access to August 11) forthcoming in the Journal of International Money and Finance [link to ungated working paper version]:
Guest Contribution: “The Federal Funds Rate: FOMC Projections, Policy Rule Prescriptions, and Futures Market Probabilities from the June 2024 Meeting”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.
News Impact Illustrated: Jobs, CPI, PPI Releases
Following up on the PPI release (discussed along with other core measures) discussed here, how have markets responded, in terms of Fed funds futures, the ten year rate?
Futures vs. SEP on the Fed Funds Rate Trajectory
Here’s a picture of the Fed funds pre- and post-CPI release/FOMC SEP:
Guest Contribution: “Market participants versus rate-setters: a forecasting horse race”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Luisa Carpinelli, Filippo Natoli, Kevin Pallara, Luca Rossi, Sergio Santoro and Massimiliano Sfregola; Bank of Italy, DG-Economics, Statistics and Research, Advanced Economies and Macroeconomic Policies Division. The views presented in this column represent those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Italy or the ESCB.