Here’re CDS and spreads vis a vis Germany over the past year:
France’s Sovereign Debt Situation: Some Graphs
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Category Archives: financial markets
What Does the Term Spread Predict? IP, GDP, Coincident Index?
It’s commonplace to correlate term spreads with future economic activity measured one way or thSo, while other. Recessions in the US do seem to be predictable on the basis of term spreads; but recessions are a binary variable insofar as the NBER, ECRI, and other institutions define it. What about growth as a continuous variable — be it growth of GDP or industrial production?
TIPS Yield, Inflation Breakeven and Dollar Rise
Consistent with expansionary fiscal policy plus tariffs hitting a non-passive Fed reaction function.
Federal Interest Payments: To the Public vs. To the Rest-of-Federal Government
Ode to an EJ Antoni graph (apologies to Keats). Total interest payments have risen substantially, and this shows up in a scary picture:
The Gutting of the US Dollar, According to Vladimir Putin
From EJ Antoni and Peter St. Onge channel Vladimir Putin (Feb 2024):
America’s political establishment has less respect for the U.S. dollar than our foreign adversaries.
That was made clear when Tucker Carlson recently interviewed the Russian strongman President Vladimir Putin, who clearly articulated how the uniparty in Washington is destroying America’s greatest strategic and economic asset — her currency.
CPI and CPI Core Surprise on Upside
CPI m/m at 0.2% vs. 0.1% consensus [correction 7:15pm CT MDC] (Core 0.3% vs. 0.2% consensus). Here are snapshots of instantaneous inflation rates for September headline, core, supercore, and services supercore CPI, headline and core PPI and HICP and headline and core PCE deflator for August.
In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Recession Probabilities
No apparent recession as of August 2024 data (my interpretation – see the opposing views here). Using year-ago financial data, what would have probit regressions have indicated? It matters which variables you use, and whether you include the 2020 recession.
Bull Steepening since FOMC Meeting
Here’s the cumulative change since 6/3/2024:
Where Will Mortgage Rates Go?
Ad hoc time series analysis.
Ten Year Treasury Yields, Dollar Index Down
Apparently some news: