Up, up and away. But that’s been true in the past too.
Category Archives: financial markets
Survey of Professional Forecasters May Survey Results in Perspective
Drop in GDP trajectory, rise in inflation expectations, and expected long rates up.
Financial Market Signals
Five year inflation breakeven shrinks, ten year – three month spread dives, TIPS and expected real rates rise above zero. The S&P500 and Bitcoin falls even as VIX remains at sub-Trump levels.
Long Horizon Unbiasedness, Updated
Some key interest differentials, through March:
Five Year Inflation Breakeven, Estimated Expected Inflation, and Oil
Five year inflation breakevens have risen tightly with oil prices, while accounting for inflation and liquidity premia implies a more gradual albeit more steady increase in implied expected inflation.
“Prosperity: Crises, Debt & the Future of American Economic Policy”
That’s the name of the economic session at the La Follette Forum on American Power, Prosperity and Democracy. A video of this panel is available through Youtube. Here are some recounting and thoughts on the panel discussion.
“The New Fama Puzzle”
or “Do you really know what Uncovered Interest Parity is, and whether it holds?” Published as of today in IMF Economic Review, with coauthored with Laurent Ferrara (SKEMA Business School), Matthieu Bussière (Banque de France), and Jonas Heipertz (Columbia Business School):
Oil Prices, Price Surprises, and Forwards, Breakevens, and Term Spreads
First, what are current one month and 1 month forward 2 months doing?
Has the Ten Year Treasury Yield Equaled the Average of Ex Post Future Short Rates Plus a Risk Premium?
And similarly for the Two Year Treasury?
What to Make of the 10yr-2yr and 10yr-3mo Spreads
As is well known, the recession talk has surged in the wake of the (short-lived) inversion in the 10yr-2yr spread.