Big daily movement in 10yr, 5yr yields:
Category Archives: financial markets
Term Spreads Falling
And negative at the 2s10s:
Nonresidential Fixed Investment and Prospects for GDP Outlook and Revisions
One of the interesting aspects of the current recovery is the relative small rebound in nonresidential fixed investment.
One Year Treasurys and One Year Forwards
Interest rates still expected to rise, but at slower pace:
Five Year Inflation Breakeven, Growth Prospects and Recession – Market Messages
At February 10th levels, but 10yr-2yr term spread below.
First Annual FRB-NYFED Conference on the “International Roles of the U.S. Dollar”
That’s the title of a conference (June 16-17) I had the pleasure of participating in. The agenda is shown below (I have included links to the papers where publicly available, but they might not be to the most recent version; Online agenda). This conference went well beyond recounting the main features associated with the dollar’s role, presenting both new empirical work (some based on micro data) and new theoretical work — ranging from the dominant currency pricing in a New Keynesian model to an explanation for staged capital account liberalization for the Chinese bond market, against a backdrop of rapid developments in digital currencies/assets and financial sanctions.
Guest Contribution: “The Price of Property Rights: Institutions, Finance, and Economic Growth”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Ron Alquist (Senior Economist and Policy Advisor, Financial Stability Oversight Council), Benjamin R. Chabot (Knowledge Leader, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago), and Ram Yamarthy (Senior Economist, Office of Financial Research, U.S. Treasury). The views expressed in this blog post are the authors’ own and do not necessarily represent those of the Financial Stability Oversight Council, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the Federal Reserve System, the Office of Financial Research, or the U.S. Department of Treasury.
What Did Other Term Spreads Do? And What Does the US Spread Mean for Foreign Economic Activity?
As noted in the post by Rashad Ahmed, foreign yield curve developments helped predict US growth. What did those spreads do? And, turning the question on its head, what does the US spread mean for those economies’ recession prospects?
Treasury Yield Curves, 2019-18 May 2022
Here is a snapshot of yield curves at the beginning of March of four years, and as of today.
Stock Market Movements and Real Rates
Over the last 9 months, the S&P500 has seemingly peaked and is now declining. Risk, discounting or something else?