Is the Administration secretly happy that the employment situation release was delayed? Without inside information, one can’t answer that, but given the ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab release, one could understand why (an 82K downside surprise is not earthshaking, but not reassuring either).
From the CPI release, food at home (aka grocery) prices:
Data available as of today, first for headline:
Overtaken By Events:
Year-on-Year looks better.
5 year ahead inflation at 3.5%, highest since 1995M04. From Michigan Survey of Consumers:
We’re a month into Trump 2.0. We don’t have February’s prices yet, but since Trump was going to do everything “Day 1”, I thought it useful to take a look at various indices.
From election day, five year inflation breakeven up 33 bps; EPU up 231. What could go wrong?
Michigan Survey of Consumers and yesterday’s release of the Survey of Professional Forecasters agree.
Not apparently going down: