PPI and core PPI y/y slightly above consensus:
Category Archives: inflation
Instantaneous Core Inflation: Various Measures
Core up, but supercore down:
“The Recession of 2025 Will Be Backdated” to 2022
Inflation Breakevens, Term Spreads Up pre-FOMC
As of yesterday COB:
Everyday Price Inflation at 0.3% y/y?
Versus 2.4% for the CPI (in logs). Lots of people think the government’s statistics understates the true inflation rate. It used to be John Williams at ShadowStats. Now it’s EJ Antoni at Heritage Foundation (who touts the use of Primerica’s everyday price index). But the American Institute for Economic Research’s “Everyday Price Index” (EPI) says otherwise (over the past year and a half).
“The Economy would grow under Harris. Under Trump, expect higher prices and debt.”
By Menzie Chinn and Mark Copelovitch
A Harris administration is far less likely to disrupt the ongoing and unprecedented American economic recovery of the last three years with stark policy reversals. This is an expanded version of an op-ed published in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Instantaneous Inflation: PCE, Market Based PCE, HICP, CPI, and Chained CPI
With PCE deflators released today:
Consumer Price Levels
A comparison:
Nonsensical Graphs that People Post
Item 1:
Has American Economic Output Been in Decline since 2022?
This is the premise of a new paper by Peter St. Onge and EJ Antoni. I have been trying to find a deflator that can yield that the result that US GDP in 2024Q2 is 2.5% below 2019Q1 levels. Based on their discussion in their paper, as well as a video by Dr. St. Onge, I have tried calculating a consumption deflator that is based on house prices and mortgage rates, using the Big Mac price (which Dr. St. Onge lauds in his video as an alternative to official statistics or PWT data), and fast food prices (specifically, the food away from home/limited services restaurants component of the CPI).