PPI figure on seasonally adjusted by author data. NSA m/m change is 36.5% (log differences).
Category Archives: inflation
Egg Prices in January — $4.95/Dozen Grade A, Large
Outpacing ERS forecast. Implied futures suggest higher prices yet.
Egg Prices – A Continued Upward March?
Tomorrow, we’ll get a reading on January egg prices at the consumer level. With futures prices at about $5.2 in December and $6.65 in January, I’d guess retail egg prices will have gone up. Futures are at $7.65 so far in February.
Year-Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations in January: 3%-3.3%
From Michigan, NY Fed, and Atlanta Fed SoFIE:
Inflation Expectations, by Party
The Michigan survey of Consumers revealed that Republican respondents expected one year inflation to be zero as of January 2025. From Torsten Slok:
One Year Inflation Expectations Upside Surprise
Michigan 1 year expectations at 4.3% vs 3.3% Bloomberg consensus.
Bringing Down Grocery Prices, Trump Style
CPI food at home is 8% of total CPI weights, fresh vegetables and fruit are 1.1%. Assume half of fresh vegetable and fruit are imported from Mexico (about 2/3 of fresh vegetables are imported from Mexico), and assume only half of the 25% tariff is passed on to US consumers (large country assumption). Then here’s a picture of the CPI for groceries, the January USDA ERS forecast and the implied level of grocery prices, assuming the tariffs are eventually placed.
How Much Does Undocument Immigration Push Down Wages of Native Born Workers
Mr. Bruce Hall quotes from Avila in a FRB Cleveland note:
If Avian Flu Hits Chicken Flocks, and the CDC Is Muted, Will That Reduce Egg Prices?
Also, if egg prices are not reported, will higher egg prices matter? From Fox5 Atlanta:
The Trump Administration has frozen many federal health agencies’ communications with the public until at least the end of the month.
The freeze affects the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), based in Atlanta, the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA)—entities tasked with fighting epidemics, ensuring food safety, and advancing disease research, according to a memo obtained by the Associated Press.
The American People on the Incipient Tariffs
From a fascinating paper by Oli Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber, “The Upcoming Trump Tariffs: What Americans Expect and How They Are Responding“: