Headline and core are both at 0.2% m/m, vs. Bloomberg consensus at 0.3%. Here’s picture of m/m, y/y, and instantaneous (Eeckhout 2023, T=12,a=4).
Category Archives: inflation
China, Mid-2023: Teetering on Deflation
The June numbers for Chinese inflation surprised on the downside: 0.0% headline vs. +0.2% y/y Bloomberg consensus, -5.4% PPI vs. -5.0% consensus. Continue reading
Inflation across Some Countries
The debate over causes of the inflation surprise in the US is dominated by focus on the fiscal policy and late tightening, among other things. I think it’s of interest to note (again!) that the spike in inflation was not US-specific. Here are two graphs I presented in today’s lecture in the ISF.
Two Data Sets and Some Papers
For use in ISF 2023 course on “Modeling & Forecasting the International Dimensions”.
US-Euro Area Price Level and Inflation Differentials: I(0), I(1), Segmented Trends?
Do you calculate inflation differentials using … inflation or price levels? Follow up on this debate from a bit over a year ago.
The Labor Market – Bargaining Power, Wages, Inflation
From WPR yesterday, UW Madison experts:
World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, June 2023
The world economy still “in a precarious state”. The comprehensive analysis, written by the team headed by Ayhan Kose, is here.
May 2023 Inflation: Various Measures, Horizons
Headline m/m +0.1% vs. +0.2% Bloomberg consensus, core at +0.4% at consensus. Here are several measures on a month to month basis (annualized).
Inflation: A Decomposition to Profits, Unit Costs
For nonfinancial corporate business sector, using price per unit real gross value added.
Oil, Risk, and Price Pressures before Putin/Ukraine – using the Hamilton Filter
Reader Erik Poole suggests using the Hamilton filter instead of the Hodrick-Prescott filter, in assessing how much the CPI deviated from trend (recall, i noted that the CPI rose 2% vs trend at the same time as oil prices were elevated, before and after the expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine). I am (more than) happy to oblige.