The June numbers for Chinese inflation surprised on the downside: 0.0% headline vs. +0.2% y/y Bloomberg consensus, -5.4% PPI vs. -5.0% consensus. Continue reading
Category Archives: inflation
Inflation across Some Countries
The debate over causes of the inflation surprise in the US is dominated by focus on the fiscal policy and late tightening, among other things. I think it’s of interest to note (again!) that the spike in inflation was not US-specific. Here are two graphs I presented in today’s lecture in the ISF.
Two Data Sets and Some Papers
For use in ISF 2023 course on “Modeling & Forecasting the International Dimensions”.
US-Euro Area Price Level and Inflation Differentials: I(0), I(1), Segmented Trends?
Do you calculate inflation differentials using … inflation or price levels? Follow up on this debate from a bit over a year ago.
The Labor Market – Bargaining Power, Wages, Inflation
From WPR yesterday, UW Madison experts:
World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, June 2023
The world economy still “in a precarious state”. The comprehensive analysis, written by the team headed by Ayhan Kose, is here.
May 2023 Inflation: Various Measures, Horizons
Headline m/m +0.1% vs. +0.2% Bloomberg consensus, core at +0.4% at consensus. Here are several measures on a month to month basis (annualized).
Inflation: A Decomposition to Profits, Unit Costs
For nonfinancial corporate business sector, using price per unit real gross value added.
Oil, Risk, and Price Pressures before Putin/Ukraine – using the Hamilton Filter
Reader Erik Poole suggests using the Hamilton filter instead of the Hodrick-Prescott filter, in assessing how much the CPI deviated from trend (recall, i noted that the CPI rose 2% vs trend at the same time as oil prices were elevated, before and after the expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine). I am (more than) happy to oblige.
Oil, Risk, and Price Pressures before Putin/Ukraine
A reader, critiquing the argument that the expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine could not explain accelerating inflation before February 2022, observes “The surge of inflation happened well before the war.” I don’t think this characterization is entirely accurate, but in any case, oil prices rose before the so-called “Special Military Operation”, and price pressures showed up concurrently.