Year-on-year CPI inflation goes negative (-0.3% vs. -0.4% consensus), and month-on-month is positive.
Category Archives: inflation
CPI Inflation at Annual Rates, using July Nowcast
From Cleveland Fed; and compared to Bloomberg consensus.
Inflation Breakevens and Expected Inflation: 5, 10, 30 Year Horizons
Beware the risk and liquidity premia, when inferring inflation expectations from breakevens.
Guest Contribution: “The Fed Stays the Course”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Instructional Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.
A Search for a Phillips Curve in China
I wondered whether Chinese inflation behavior was anomalous. Answering that question depends critically on (1) what model you believe in, (2) what you believe the model parameters are, (3) what you think the input values are, and (4) whether you think the model has been stable over time. Here’s one answer.
Consumer Sentiment: Less “Meh”
Preliminary reading of 72.6 far exceeded Bloomberg consensus of 65.5. That’s an increase of one standard deviation (calculated for the last three years).
PPI Inflation Down in June
Total PPI 2.4% vs 2.6% y/y Bloomberg consensus (0.1% vs 0.4% core.) Signal or not for future core CPI and CPI inflation?
Q/Q Inflation in Historical Context
Transitory vs. Persistent: You decide.
Inflation at Month-on-Month: Headline, Core, Sticky, Trimmed, Mean, Instantaneous
As of June:
Inflation and Core Inflation at Various Horizons
Headline and core are both at 0.2% m/m, vs. Bloomberg consensus at 0.3%. Here’s picture of m/m, y/y, and instantaneous (Eeckhout 2023, T=12,a=4).