Treasury-TIPS 5 year breakeven down to 2.53%, but expected 5 year inflation after adjusting for premia at 2.31% as of 6/30.
Category Archives: inflation
Gasoline Prices Today and (Maybe) Tomorrow
Assuming futures contract prices for gasoline are useful predictors for future gasoline prices:
Did Oil Prices Start Rising when Biden Started His War on Fossil Fuels
A reader writes:
I estimate (don’t kinda think) that a large portion of today’s inflation is due to environmental policies, in particular the war on fossil fuels.
Has US m/m Inflation Accelerated Significantly Faster than Euro Area Inflation?
No, since 2020M03. No for headline, yes for core (at 8% level), since 2021M03.
Inflation, May 2022
Month-on-month indicators down, particularly core PCE:
One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations as of End-June
Year-on-year CPI headline inflation is expected to be lower as of a year from now, ranging from 4.2% to 6.8%.
Advanced Country Headline Inflation Rates – May 2022
High inflation not just in the US:
About 40 Years of Inflation Expectations Errors – Economists vs. Households
From the Michigan consumer survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasters:
Miscalculating potential GDP
How did the Fed get this so wrong?
Continue reading
IGM-FT Macroeconomists survey for June
Results from the survey (taken June 6-8), re: GDP, prices, recession: