Messages from the WSJ July Survey:
Category Archives: inflation
Food Inflation Stable, Down in the Midwest
Through June:
Inflation, Greedflation, Economy-wide vs. Corporate Sector
In a recent SF Fed Economic Letter, Sylvain Leduc, Huiyu Li, and Zheng Liu answered the question: “Are Markups Driving the Ups and Downs of Inflation?” If one defines inflation as a broad, economy-wide increase in prices, the answer is mostly “no”.
Four Measures of Consumer Prices for June (and Two for May)
In addition to CPI, we have chained CPI, CPI-wage earners, HICP, a nowcast for PCE, as well as May PCE – market based. The four June price indices are down.
Instantaneous PPI Inflation
PPI reads above consensus:
Instantaneous Inflation in June
CPI m/m (headline, core) below consensus (-0.1% vs +0.1%, +0.1 vs +0.2, respectively).
One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations Stable
With Michigan final June survey out, we have this picture:
Supreme Court Views on Price Stability and Full Employment
In the wake of the SCOTUS decision regarding Chevron deference, I investigate this issue. Here is a summary of academic research on Supreme Court views on these topics, separate from whether fiat money as currently established in the United States as unconstitutional (e.g., see here). I also defer discussion on whether the Federal Reserve is constitutional.
Instantaneous PCE inflation in May
PCE hits consensus. Instantaneous (weighted average of m/m inflation, with more recent observations having higher impact) headline and core down.
“Food costs doubled, tripled, quadrupled…”
That’s Mr. Trump on inflation. Here’s the data: