Following up on the PPI release (discussed along with other core measures) discussed here, how have markets responded, in terms of Fed funds futures, the ten year rate?
Category Archives: inflation
All Down: Instantaneous Core Inflation Measures for May
Core PPI under consensus (0% vs. +0.3% m/m).
Misery and Modified Misery
Conventional and Instantaneous
Year-on-Year and Instantaneous Inflation in May; Food Prices Declining
Headline and core surprise on the downside: m/m 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus, and 0.0% vs 0.1% consensus, respectively. More interestingly, Cleveland Fed core CPI nowcast for May m/m was 0.30%, actual was 0.16%.
Instantaneous Inflation Rates for April
All measures decelerate.
Immigration, Recovery and Inflation
In the Fed’s recent examination of the differential recovery in the US as compared to the Euro area, UK and Canada, I was surprised that immigration did not make a bigger appearance, given my views.
One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations for May
May’s final numbers from the U.Michigan survey are out. Here’s the picture of several one-year-ahead expected inflation rates.
One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations
April and May inflation was overpredicted by year-ahead consumer-based surveys.
Import Prices Surprise
The index came in at +0.9% vs. +0.2% m/m.
The Trend Break in CPI
Readers [1] [2] inquired why there appears to be a trend break in (log) CPI at 2022M06. My best guess is the spike in oil prices.