With August CPI release, we have core, chained core, supercore, and services supercore (via P. Skrzypczynski). PPI comes tomorrow.
Category Archives: inflation
SIX
Instantaneous Core PCE at 2.2%
M/M Core PCE inflation at consensus.
Grocery Prices and Wholesale Food Prices
The Harris Walz plan for reining in grocery prices appears to contain two components, one of which has attracted a lot of attention (stopping price gouging), while the second (antitrust against food processors) has garnered less criticism (see agenda here). While it might be the case that grocery store chains are exploiting some monopoly power, it’s not clear to me it’s the most important aspect of grocery price developments.
Food at Home CPI Component: Unchanged Relative to January 2024
Prices are up relative to January 2021, but not relative to January 2024:
Instantaneous Core Inflation: Five Measures
With the CPI release, we have new July observations for 3 series.
PPI Downside Surprise
Core PPI 0.0% m/m vs +0.2% consensus (+2.4% y/y vs. +2.7% consensus). Here’s a picture of instantaneous core measures.
One Year Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations down in July for Consumers, Firms, Economists
Last one for August (from Survey of Professional Forecasters).
Who Better Predicted the Transitory Inflation Surge of 2021-24?
Consumers, CEO’s, or economists?
Inflation Expectations in July (and June)
Michigan is down in July, while business unit costs are up slightly.
Instantaneous Core Inflation
Four out of five measures down: