I’m giving a presentation on what determines Wisconsin exports. Here’s an interesting finding – since 2018, real goods exports have underperformed what would’ve been expected based on rest-of-world GDP and the real value of the US dollar.
Category Archives: international
Long Horizon Unbiasedness, Updated
Some key interest differentials, through March:
Guest Contribution: “The Surprising Drop in French Economic Activity “
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of International Economics, SKEMA Business School, Paris, and Chair of the French Business Cycle Dating Committee).
Sovereign Debt Crisis or Oil in the Euro Area Recession of 2011-13
Conventional wisdom (sovereign debt crisis and austerity measures) or oil as cause? Steven Kopits says oil:
The cause of a brutal recession in Europe during Q4 2011 – Q1 2013 remains unexplained in policy circles. Or more precisely, the proposed explanation is less than compelling. … oil prices once again returned to high levels, with Brent regularly in the $100 – 115 range. With this, oil consumption in both the US and Europe began to decline, and such declines in oil consumption due to high prices — normally characterized as an oil shock — invariably leads to recession. … to suggest a Greek financial crisis could cause a recession in Europe is not entirely convincing. Greece’s GDP is all of 2% of that of the EU. It would be like a financial crisis in Indiana taking down the US economy. Conceivable, but it does not jump out at you.
“The New Fama Puzzle”
or “Do you really know what Uncovered Interest Parity is, and whether it holds?” Published as of today in IMF Economic Review, with coauthored with Laurent Ferrara (SKEMA Business School), Matthieu Bussière (Banque de France), and Jonas Heipertz (Columbia Business School):
Russian (External) Debt in Doubt
At 40% recovery rate, credit default swaps (CDSs) imply 100% probability of default. Ratings agencies have downgraded Russian debt.
Russia Drops the Policy Rate – What Does It Mean?
The ruble has stabilized at near pre-invasion levels, and the Central Bank of Russia drops the policy rate to 17%. What’s going on?
“High-frequency macroeconomic risk measures in the wake of the war in Ukraine”
In a VoxEU post by Laurent Ferrara, Matteo Mogliani, and Jean-Guillaume Sahuc today, applying a growth-at-risk (GaR) approach (Ferrara et al. 2022, ungated 2020 WP version) they estimate they downside risk to Euro area vs. US GDP q/q growth.
The Ruble vs. Exchange Market Pressure in Russia
The value of the ruble has returned to pre-invasion levels [1]. But what I am more concerned about is exchange market pressure. And there, we are at sea.
Prices of Iron and Steel, and Trade Policy
I’m covering the impact of tariffs and quotas (general, antidumping, countervailing subsidy, section 232) and updated some graphs on steel employment, production, and prices. Here’s one particularly interesting one: