Official vs. effective, real vs. nominal, bilateral vs. multilateral.
Category Archives: international
Euro Area GDP Nowcasts, Pre-NordStream Indefinite Shutdown
Natural gas futures surge as Gazprom announces shutdown. What were nowcasts indicating before this announcement? Nowcasts from Banca d’Italia via CEPR, Cascaldi-Garcia et al., and Woloszko/OECD.
“The Impacts of Crises on the Trilemma Configurations”
Excepting international reserves, trilemma configurations were durable through the global financial crisis. From Aizenman, Chinn and Ito (forthcoming Open Economies Review, 2022) (also NBER WP No. 30406).
Foreign Direct Investment in 2021 – A Nascent Recovery?
UNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2022 came out recently. Figure 1 depicts the recovery of FDI inflows.
If We End Up Talking about the Global Recession of 2023, What/Who Will We Blame?
As forecasts are marked down (IMF releases new forecasts on Tuesday), here in two pictures is my answer:
Tracking the Russian Economy: Are Sanctions Working? [Updated]
[Updated 7/22 using 7/22 BOFIT Weekly Monitor information] It depends on what you mean by “working”, even if Russian GDP (as reported) hasn’t collapsed yet in the reported statistics yet, the worst is likely yet to come. And some effects won’t be easily measurable.
How Have Wisconsin Goods Exports Fared since 2018
I’m giving a presentation on what determines Wisconsin exports. Here’s an interesting finding – since 2018, real goods exports have underperformed what would’ve been expected based on rest-of-world GDP and the real value of the US dollar.
Long Horizon Unbiasedness, Updated
Some key interest differentials, through March:
Guest Contribution: “The Surprising Drop in French Economic Activity “
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of International Economics, SKEMA Business School, Paris, and Chair of the French Business Cycle Dating Committee).
Sovereign Debt Crisis or Oil in the Euro Area Recession of 2011-13
Conventional wisdom (sovereign debt crisis and austerity measures) or oil as cause? Steven Kopits says oil:
The cause of a brutal recession in Europe during Q4 2011 – Q1 2013 remains unexplained in policy circles. Or more precisely, the proposed explanation is less than compelling. … oil prices once again returned to high levels, with Brent regularly in the $100 – 115 range. With this, oil consumption in both the US and Europe began to decline, and such declines in oil consumption due to high prices — normally characterized as an oil shock — invariably leads to recession. … to suggest a Greek financial crisis could cause a recession in Europe is not entirely convincing. Greece’s GDP is all of 2% of that of the EU. It would be like a financial crisis in Indiana taking down the US economy. Conceivable, but it does not jump out at you.