The value of the ruble has returned to pre-invasion levels [1]. But what I am more concerned about is exchange market pressure. And there, we are at sea.
Category Archives: international
Prices of Iron and Steel, and Trade Policy
I’m covering the impact of tariffs and quotas (general, antidumping, countervailing subsidy, section 232) and updated some graphs on steel employment, production, and prices. Here’s one particularly interesting one:
Russian GDP Prospects Visualized (again)
Recent forecasts indicate 9.6% GDP y/y decline in 2022 (Bloomberg consensus, 3/25), or 15% (IIF, 3/10, via Reuters). S&P Global (3/22) forecasts 22% decline (q4/q4).
Guest Contribution: “Surprisingly Strong Sanctions”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate. Also available as a podcast.
Sanctions, energy prices, and the world economy
Oil sanctions and recession
After a wild ride up to $130 a barrel, the price of oil has come back down to its level from before Russia invaded Ukraine. Russian oil may be finding buyers despite the sanctions, and U.S. production continues to recover. But the situation remains very uncertain, and a big disruption in the quantity of Russian oil that reaches world refineries is a very significant possibility. In my previous post, I examined the causes of the run-up in the price of oil that had already occurred before the invasion and discussed the implications for U.S. inflation. Today I comment on the possible implications of further supply disruptions for U.S. real GDP.
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Oil prices and inflation
The price of oil has doubled from its value a year ago and could increase much more if there are significant reductions in the quantity of Russian oil that reaches world refineries. This is the first in a series of two posts on what these events could mean for the U.S. economy. Today I focus on the implications for inflation, and in a follow-up post I will discuss implications for real GDP.
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The Ruble: Convertible No Longer
From Anders Aslund at Project Syndicate:
And on March 8, the central bank decided to stop exchanging rubles for foreign currencies, which means that the ruble is no longer convertible.
A Forecast on Russian Policy Rate, Inflation
From Wells Fargo today:
Russia Deploys the Interest Rate Defense (and probably everything else)
Russia raises the policy rate to 20%, from 9.5%, which was itself raised on 2/11.