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Category Archives: international
The Return of Global Imbalances (As Foretold)
Nearly a year ago, I asked Are Global Imbalances a Source of Concern?. At a minimum, we know they’re back. And the IMF certainly thinks so.
Guest Contribution: “Apology Tour d’horizon”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate.
VoxEU: “The new Fama Puzzle”
That’s a new article at the outstanding web portal VoxEU, coauthored by Matthieu Bussière, Menzie Chinn, Laurent Ferrara, and Jonas Heipertz, and based on this paper:
The ‘Fama puzzle’ is the finding that ex post depreciation and interest differentials are negatively correlated, contrary to what theory suggests. This column re-examines the puzzle for eight advanced country exchange rates against the US dollar, over the period up to February 2016. The rejection of the joint hypothesis of uncovered interest parity and rational expectations still occurs, but with much less frequency. In contrast to earlier findings, the Fama regression coefficient is positive and large in the period after the Global Crisis, but survey-based measures of exchange rate expectations reveal greater evidence in favour of uncovered interest parity.
The Trade War to Date
Guest Contribution: “Protectionism Is Nothing New for Republicans”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate.
Trade Deficit Rising!
Since 2017Q1. By Mr. Trump’s own metric, we’re losing. But it’s a stoopid metric for evaluating “unfair”-ness.
A Reminder of Why It’s the G-7 and Not G-8
And also why we have sanctions against several Russian citizens, firms and financial institutions. Hint: It has something to do with the orange areas:
Source: Euromaidenpress.
EconoFact: “What is the National Security Rationale for Steel, Aluminum and Automobile Protection?”
From EconoFact, an update:
The Trump administration has implemented a number of trade related measures purportedly on the basis of national security. First, it invoked the seldom-used provision of the trade law to investigate whether imposing import restrictions for steel and aluminum is justified by national security reasons. The Commerce Department’s investigation concluded that imports of both metals pose a national security risk and subsequently the administration applied tariffs and quotas to both products. In a new investigation, the Commerce Department has started looking into whether imports of cars or automobile parts could impair U.S. national security.
Guest Contribution: “Trump’s On-Again Off-Again Trade War with China”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared in The Hill.