The recession is (probably) not here yet (nor was it likely here earlier this year), employment likely continued to grow, and real wages are on average higher than they were before the pandemic. First, key business cycle indicators followed by the NBER BCDC continue uptrend in October, with exception of the civilian employment series based on the household series.
Category Archives: recession
Nowcasting the 2022H1 or 2022H2 Recession
Two of the methodologies discussed in the post on recent nowcasting developments provide insights into the state of the economy.
Business Cycle Indicators at the Beginning of November
and on the eve of the October employment report. With monthly GDP on Tuesday, and consumption and income last week, we have the following picture of some key series followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (NBER BCDC):
On the Eve of November FOMC
Expected economic activity, medium term market based inflation expectations, and risk/uncertainty measures.
Not a recession … yet
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the third quarter. That’s close to the historical average (3.1%), and is a welcome sequel to the two quarters of falling GDP with which we started the year.
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On the Eve of the Q3 GDP Release: Coincident Index and GDPNow
Jim will have more in a few hours, but for now, here is GDPNow as of 10/26, compared to monthly GDP (as of October 4), and the Philadelphia Fed Concident Index.
Industrial Production in the Recession of 1920-21, Compared to a Hypothetical 2022 Recession
Here’s industrial production (Fed, Miron-Romer) index during the 1920-21 recession, as reader Steven Kopits thinks this is the template for a conjectured current ongoing recession (or incipient – the conjecture keeps on changing).
Reminder: “Recession” Is Not the Same as “People Are Unhappy”
Reader Steve Kopits, after again asserting that VMT, gasoline consumption, GDP all imply recession in H1 2022, writes as his clinching argument “And apparently, the public is none too enamored of macro indicators, either, given recent polling heading into November.” I agree, the public is not terribly happy, as evidenced by say the U Michigan Sentiment indicator. But that’s not to say we’re in a recession.
Evaluating “Recession Fears”
It seems that recession is imminent, according to some accounts (60% in 10/14 Bloomberg panel, 63% in the WSJ October survey, 100% in the Wong/Winger model). WaPo “As recession fears rise, Washington begins to weigh how to respond”. What do some models say about recession and growth?
Weekly Macroeconomic Activity through 10/15
As measured by NY Fed WEI, OECD Weekly Tracker, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI.