Deceleration continues, according to some key indicators noted by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC).
Category Archives: recession
Slow Recovery Continues: Private Employment
ADP and Bloomberg consensus says don’t expect surge, don’t expect decline…
Enhanced Benefits and Outlook: Continuation vs. End
From Wells Fargo Economics today:
Implications of a “No Recovery Package” Outcome
From Deutsche Bank on Sunday:
In the US, fiscal uncertainty is a major issue. As outlined above, we now assume that significant further support will not be forthcoming until after the election. The resulting drop in income support for households is already beginning to depress activity and we see GDP growth slowing to near zero in Q4 as consumer spending slides. Growth will pick up in Q1 with some post-election fiscal support.
Business Cycle Indicators, September 15th
With today’s industrial production release, here’s a picture of five indicators tracked by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC):
September Economic Forecasts: Uncertainty Dominates at Year End
August Private Payrolls
ADP released its August numbers, showing slow growth.
Business Cycle Indicators, September 1st
IHM/Markit (aka Macroeconomic Advisers) releases July GDP:
The Rebound Slows: Business Cycle Indicators, August 28th
Several of the five key indicators referenced by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee are decelerating, as shown in Figure 1.
Deviations vs. Shortfalls
The Fed’s new framework, as described by Chairman Powell, mentions “shortfalls” (particularly in employment), instead of deviations of the natural rate. The output analog of this shift is moving from the deviation of output from potential (i.e., output gap) to an output slack measure. If we interpret this as requiring a focus on a Friedman-esque plucking model of maximal output, rather than potential GDP as described in most textbooks, what does this mean for where we are right now? I’d say for the short run, we are still in for a world of pain, economically speaking…