Travis Berge and Oscar Jorda of the University of California, Davis have an interesting new paper on statistical criteria for distinguishing economic expansions from recessions.
Category Archives: recession
Current economic conditions
The U.S. recovery is underway. But so far it doesn’t look as strong as we had been hoping.
On Revisions and on Conditioning
Both have to be “handled with care”.
Revisions
We’re all tempted to make predictions on the basis of the last data point. And even more difficult to resist is the temptation to make definitive statements on the basis of data that are sure to be revised. For instance, we see this question from Casey Mulligan, “Where’s the GDP Disaster?”.
Last October, when we were told that spending and incomes were about to collapse, I predicted that “real GDP will not drop below $11 trillion (chained 2000 $).”
A welcome GDP report
The Commerce Department reported today that the seasonally adjusted real value of the nation’s production of goods and services grew at a 3.5% annual rate during the third quarter, a little better than the 3.2% average seen since 1947.
No L
Real output grew significantly this quarter. Will employment follow?
Dollar Demise and Double Dip: Latest Forecasts
I thought it of interest to see what surveys of forecasters indicate about two questions being asked: Is a dollar collapse imminent — Martin Wolf is skeptical, while others [0] are convinced the end is nigh — and is a double dip recession likely? I take a look at the messages conveyed by FX4casts.com and the WSJ October survey of forecasters.
Will stimulating nominal aggregate demand solve our problems?
In which I join the ongoing debate on how much we should expect fiscal and monetary stimulus to accomplish.
“W” and the Stimulus Package in Perspective
In the wake of some recent economic reports, most prominently the employment report, there’s some discussion of how the recovery is in doubt [1], possibly leading to a “W”, or double dip, [2]. Anxieties focus on 2010 or possibly 2011. I think, in retrospect, such worries cast the criticisms of the stimulus bill in a different light than just a few months ago.
Not much of a V
The latest auto and employment numbers paint a picture of an economic recovery that remains tepid and potentially fragile.
Economy improves but concerns remain
Last week we received positive readings for some key economic indicators. But I still see plenty to worry about.