A reminder:
Category Archives: Trade Policy
“It’s almost as if you have no economics training at all…”
With apologies to Kramer’s boss in Seinfeld. From Oren Cass’s “Trump’s Most Misunderstood Policy Proposal: Economists aren’t telling the whole truth about tariffs,” The Atlantic:
Their first mistake is to consider only the costs of tariffs, and not the benefits. Traditionally, an economist assessing a proposed market intervention begins by searching for a market failure, typically an “externality,” in need of correction. Pollution is the quintessential illustration. A factory owner will not consider the widespread harms of dumping pollutants in a river when deciding how much to spend on pollution controls. A policy that forces him to pay for polluting will correct this market failure—colloquially by “making it his problem.” It imposes a cost on the polluter in the pursuit of benefits for everyone else.
A Fiscal “Do You Feel Lucky?” Part II
Previous counts put Trump fiscal promises at (at least) $4 trillion over ten years, compared to Harris $1.7 trillion (or Economist $3 trillion vs $1.4 trillion). Now, let’s place Trump tax cuts at a cost of $11 trillion…From “Trump Dangles So Many Tax Breaks Even Some Advisers Are Confused,” Bloomberg:
Manufacturing: When Tariffs Last Bloomed
Lest we forget, a visual recap of what exactly happened when Trump started announcing Section 232 and Section 301 measures.
Doug Irwin on CNN: McKinley and Tariffs
A Known Known: Which Presidential Proposals Would Be Implemented
Apologies to Donald Rumsfeld. There is some uncertainty regarding what parts of presidential proposals will be implemented, especially in light of the necessity for Congressional approval. However, one area where legislative approval is not required: tariffs
Reminder: Wisconsin Exports under Trump
If you forgot what the trade landscape looked like — and how Trump’s policies impacted Wisconsin — here’s a picture of Wisconsin real exports during and after (was thinking about this, prepping for WisconsinEye show tomorrow, where Mike Knetter will be talking).
Brad Setser on China’s True Trade Balance
Brad Setser has been diligently cross-checking the external accounts of China. For purposes of thinking about how policymakers are trying to snatch aggregate demand across borders, the trade balance is key.
NABE on Trade Policy
“Mandate for Leadership” (aka Project 2025) on Trade Policy: The Case for Fair Trade
I have delayed reviewing this portion of chapter 26 of the Project 2025 because I knew it would be painful to read. But as the election nears, it’s incumbent upon all of us to take up our burdens in support of good policy. So here is some key text from this portion of the chapter, written by my onetime (40-42 years ago) coauthor Peter Navarro (the second portion, “The case for free trade” by Kent Lassman is a useful orthodox treatment of trade policy).