The increase of 307 thousand in private nonfarm payrolls (as reported by ADP) — under Bloomberg expectations of 410 thousand — suggests further deceleration in employment growth.
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“Trifecta”
When the Biden economic team members were announced, I wondered if there was any pattern to discern in the locus of Republican attacks. As far as I can tell, it’s not expertise, it’s not ideological bent, it’s not what school you went to. But here is a Venn diagram to help you identify what makes you a “no-go”.
Business Cycle Indicators as of December 1st
With the release of monthly GDP numbers, we have the following picture of some of the key indicators followed by NBER:
The New Economic Team?
As of 11/29. Can you tell a difference?
Trump’s Trade War by the NIPA Numbers
National Income and Product Accounts numbers that is.
Wisconsin Economic Activity in October
As measured by the Philadelphia Fed coincident index.
Business Cycle Indicators as of November 25th
With October personal income and September manufacturing and trade sales reported today, we have this picture of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee‘s key indicators:
Covid-19 Weekly Fatalities and Excess Fatalities, as of November 25
Fatalities are rising; CDC determined fatalities consistently below alternative estimates in recent weeks; excess fatalities are revised upward (a lot, again).
Transition Teams – Economics
TPM has the list of transition team members. Below I reproduce those involving in economics.
Covid-19 Is Still Here: Implications for Employment
A reminder that it’s still possible to save tens of thousands of lives, with a return to competence and science in the waning days of the Trump administration (it goes without saying management would improve immeasurably in the Biden-Harris administration). Covid-19 hospitalizations are soaring. Seven day rolling average of deaths is at 970, showing a rapid ascent (it’s rising 19% per week). How long can employment continue to grow as the pandemic again surges?