Figure 1: Cumulative sum of mass shooting casualties, beginning in 1982M08; deaths (red), wounded (pink). October observation for data through 10/2. Source: Mother Jones.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
At Least Nero Fiddled
Source: The Hill.
The View from 2012: The Hiatus in Per Capita US GDP
If one was looking back at the data available a half a decade ago, an observer (not me) might have concluded that there was a hiatus in per capita output that signalled an end to growth.
Figure 1: GDP per capita in thousands of Chained 2005$, SAAR, as of September 28, 2012, calculated using GDP and population reported at that date. On log scale. Source: St. Louis Fed ALFRED, and author’s calculations.
Cassidy-Graham Implications for Federal Health Spending
Even more draconian than outright repeal.
Source: CBPP.
Term Spread, September 5, 2017
As I was compiling background notes for the new semester, I found the current level and trend in the term spread of interest.
Figure 1: Ten year minus three month Treasury spread (blue), and ten year minus two year spread (red), %. Observations for September are 9/5. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: FRED, Bloomberg, NBER and author’s calculations.
Run the probit regression
recessiont+6 = -0.81 -0.474×(GS10-TB3MS)t + 0.065×TB3MSt + ut
over the 1967M01-2017M02 period (McFadden R2 = 0.24); the implied probability of recession is 10% for February 2018.
Using a specification without the level of the short rate included leads to a slightly higher probability, 14% or so.
The detail is also interesting. The spreads are smaller than they were in October 2016.
Figure 2: Ten year minus three month Treasury spread (blue), and ten year minus two year spread (red), %. Observations for September are 9/5. Source: FRED, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.
“Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy”
Here at this conference today:
Friday, August 25, 2017
Chair: Susan M. Collins
Former Dean, Gerald R. Ford School of Public PolicyUniversity of Michigan
8 a.m.
Opening RemarksJanet L. Yellen | Speech
Chair
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System8:30 a.m.
Fostering Business Dynamism and Ensuring Competitive MarketsAuthors: Chang-Tai Hsieh | Paper
Professor
University of ChicagoPete Klenow | Paper, Remarks
Professor
Stanford UniversityDiscussant: Gita Gopinath | Remarks
Professor
Harvard University9:05 a.m.
General Discussion9:55 a.m.
Income Inequality and the Distribution Aspects of International TradeAuthor: Nina Pavcnik | Paper, Remarks
Professor
Dartmouth CollegeDiscussant: David Dorn | Remarks
Professor
University of Zurich10:30 a.m.
General Discussion10:55 a.m.
Panel on the Changing Landscape of International TradePanelists: Ann E. Harrison | Remarks
Professor
University of PennsylvaniaCatherine L. Mann | Remarks
Chief EconomistOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Peter K. Schott | Remarks
Professor
Yale UniversityJohn Van Reenen | Paper, Remarks
Professor
Massachusetts Institute of Technology11:55 a.m.
General Discussion1 p.m.
Luncheon AddressMario Draghi | Speech
PresidentEuropean Central Bank
2 p.m.
AdjournmentSaturday, August 26, 2017
Chair: Randall S. Kroszner
ProfessorUniversity of Chicago
8 a.m.
Balancing Short-term Fiscal Stimulus with Longer-term SustainabilityAuthors: Alan J. Auerbach | Paper
ProfessorUniversity of California-Berkeley
Yuriy Gorodnichenko| Paper
Professor
University of California-BerkeleyDiscussant: Jason Furman | Remarks
ProfessorHarvard University
8:35 a.m.
General Discussion9 a.m.
Achieving Balanced Global GrowthAuthor: Menzie Chinn | Paper, Remarks
ProfessorUniversity of Wisconsin
Discussant:
Maurice Obstfeld |RemarksEconomic Counsellor
International Monetary Fund10 a.m.
General Discussion10:25 a.m.
Overview PanelPanelists: Norman Chan | Remarks
Chief Executive
Hong Kong Monetary AuthorityTimothy J. Kehoe | Remarks
Professor
University of MinnesotaCarmen M. Reinhart
Professor
Harvard University11:25 a.m.
General Discussion
What’s the Dead Weight Loss of a Consumption Tax When Externalities Are Present?
Stephen Moore Is a Liar, Part 2
(Transitory) Revealed Preferences
Here’s the health coverage implications of President Trump’s proposal to repeal Obamacare, as assessed by the CBO:
Figure 1: Effects of H.R. 1628, THE Obamacare Repeal Reconciliation Act of 2017, on health insurance coverage of people under age 65, in millions, by calendar year. Source: CBO, Table 4.
So, at least for part of one day, the President was content to let an additional 32 million be uncovered by 2026.
The Budget Deficit under Trump, Excluding Unicorn Effects
The CBO has just released an assessment of the President’s budget proposal. Balancing the budget looks unrealistic, even given massively sweeping (and unrealistic) spending cuts.