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Spot the “Events” in this Event Study
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Nowcasted Consumption Falls to Stall Speed
A week ago, Atlanta Fed’s nowcast of consumption was 2.2% q/q annualized; now it’s zero.
Policy Uncertainty
High frequency through 3/2:
Have Nowcasts and Forecasts Ever Dropped so Quickly When Not about to Go into a Recession?
Asking for a friend. From Atlanta Fed today:
Reinversion Continues
End of week spreads:
Off a Cliff
NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee key indicators. Consumption (preliminary) falls markedly.
Weekly Macro Indicators – Growth at about Trend
For data available through 2/15. New datapoints tomorrow, for data available through 2/22.
Conference Board: “Pessimism about the future returned”
Conference Board index at 98.3 vs. 102.7 Bloomberg consensus, down from upwardly revised 105.3. Here is a picture of (standardized) U.Michigan Sentiment, Conference Board and Gallup Confidence measures.
EPU Today: 655
A big jump:
The 50th anniversary of Alice Rivlin’s tenure as the founding director of CBO
From the CBO website: