Michigan consumer sentiment declined, below consensus (68.9 vs 70.9). Why?
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Will Household Wealth Be a Tailwind to Consumption in 2024Q3?
Here’s a picture of household net worth, in both nominal and real terms, with my nowcasts for Q3.
Whither FEMA under Trump
From Mandate for Leadership, aka Project 2025, page 135:
Bloomberg Economics: Mass Deportation Impact on GDP, Inflation
“Economists for Harris” vs. “Economists for Trump”
Here’s the letter in support of Harris. Here’s the letter in support of Trump (2020).
Consumer Sentiment and Expectations (Rev’d) in September
Upward revisions for both indices from University of Michigan Survey of Consumers:
Betting Markets on the Election, Again
Perhaps someone can tell me why we get such different bets depending on platform (and why doesn’t RealClearPolitics include PredictIt)?
Why Do Prediction Markets Differ in Pricing the Election?
RealClearPolitics betting average, today, has Harris-Trump 52.3 to 46.3.
Nowcasts Rising
Here’s a snapshot of nowcasts and forecasts as of today:
Is Manufacturing In Recession?
As of August, incorporating latest capacity utilization and production data, I’m tempted to say no, even incorporating at face value the preliminary benchmark revision to employment.