Here’s the letter in support of Harris. Here’s the letter in support of Trump (2020).
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Consumer Sentiment and Expectations (Rev’d) in September
Upward revisions for both indices from University of Michigan Survey of Consumers:
Betting Markets on the Election, Again
Perhaps someone can tell me why we get such different bets depending on platform (and why doesn’t RealClearPolitics include PredictIt)?
Why Do Prediction Markets Differ in Pricing the Election?
RealClearPolitics betting average, today, has Harris-Trump 52.3 to 46.3.
Nowcasts Rising
Here’s a snapshot of nowcasts and forecasts as of today:
Is Manufacturing In Recession?
As of August, incorporating latest capacity utilization and production data, I’m tempted to say no, even incorporating at face value the preliminary benchmark revision to employment.
Summary of Economic Projections: GDP
From the Fed today:
GDPNow at 3% for Q3
Goldman Sachs tracking 2.8%.
Monthly Median Income
From Motio Research, August 2024:
FT-Ross/Michigan Poll on Views of Candidates’ Economic Policies
Who would do better, according to the FT today: