Consider the plight of a time series econometrician who wants to do a quick and dirty forecast for the next year, conditioned only on past information on GDP. One might end up with series in the graph below.
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Lumber Prices
A wild ride for futures means…
Five Year Breakeven Inflation Expectations
After adjustment for premia, constant over the last three months:
A Logged Look at Bitcoin
If you believe the world is in base e, then this is a better picture of the Bitcoin’s progress.
Wisconsin Employment in April
Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment has stabilized at a level down 4.7% relative to NBER peak in 2020M02, vs. 5.4% for the nation overall (according to figures released by DWD yesterday).
More Nonsense
Interpreting the Labor Market
The employment surprise – demand shortfall, supply constraints, or statistical artefact? I discussed on WPR Central Time yesterday.
Market Based Inflation Expectations at 5 Year Horizon
The simple — conventionally reported — inflation breakeven calculation might be misleading.
Inomics: Top Economics Blogs – April 2021
From Inomics:
Business Cycle Indicators as of May 4th
Monthly GDP figures were released by IHS-Markit yesterday, showing a rebound in March. In the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee: