Slightly behind schedule, my year reviewed. Last year’s recap was entitled “Year in Review, 2022: Vast Data Conspiracy by BEA, “Drill, baby, drill!”, and the Ills of Diversity” This year, with rational policymaking returning, it’s time to keep on trying to erase stupidity.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Sentiment by Survey and by Text Analysis
The Michigan survey of consumer sentiment has diverged its correlation with unemployment and inflation, as has (to a lesser degree) the Conference Board survey of confidence. Interestingly, they’ve both diverged from sentiment as measured by text analysis.
Michigan Sentiment (Prelim) Surprises
on the upside. But the disjuncture between (inverted) misery and sentiment (and confidence) continues.
Russia Invasion Skeptics on the Eve of the War
Good to remember, as we come up to Russian expanded invasion +2 years. Reader JohnH (February 16th, less than a week before the “Special Military Operation”‘s commencement, ridiculing the thought that Russia was embark on further aggression:
Sentiment down 46%, Confidence down 25% Relative to Pandemic Eve
And sentiment down 21% relative to Biden’s start, confidence up 13%.
GDP Q4 Nowcasts of November 17th
Lots of agreement around 2% SAAR, with NY Fed at 2.45%. Here’s a graphic depiction of the implications for the level of GDP.
GDP and Interest Rate Forecasts and Recession from the SPF
The Q4 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released Monday. Accelerated growth is forecast, no yield curve dis-inversion, and triggering of the Sahm rule.
Taiwan Straits Balance of Forces, 2023
From DoD’s 2023 report on PRC’s military and security developments.
Some Hate Crimes, over Time
Risk and Uncertainty, Market and Geopolitical
One way to visualize: