With today’s employment situation release, here’s a picture of five indicators tracked by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC):
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Howlers
Some people say the craziest things:
Teetering on the Precipice (Still)
Round 6 results of the FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook Survey Series is out. Fivethirtyeight characterizes the results:
The Double Dip Cometh?
My base scenario is a slow recovery. However, I have always viewed — given the sheer incompetence of the Trump administration — the possibility of a double dip recession as a real one. Today, Diane Swonk lays out the case:
Guest Contribution: “The impact of the pandemic on developing countries”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate.
Economists’ Public Letter on Recovery Policy: State Aid, SNAP, UI
Public Letter on Recovery Policy (from Scholar’s Strategy Network), released today:
CfP: “International Capital Flows and Financial Globalisation”
From Trinity College Dublin:
CALL FOR PAPERS
IM-TCD half-day workshop on:
International Capital Flows and Financial Globalisation
Date: December 17th, 2020
Venue: Zoom
The Swedish Experiment, Illustrated
Reader Bruce Hall, like all too many other people, thinks Sweden is doing just great. Here’re some data pertaining to the performance of its neighbors.
GDP Nowcasts, June 26th
- GDPNow 6/26 -39.5%
- NY Fed nowcast 6/26 -16.3%
- St. Louis Fed 6/26 -38.14%
- IHS 6/26 -35.3%
GDP Now estimates over time:
Some reasons why nowcasts differ, by Jim Hamilton.
State and Local Employment in the Covid Recession
Employment has been cut tremendously. With massive impending revenue shortfalls, state and local spending will continue to remain depressed, placing a drag on the economic recovery – just as austerity measures slowed the recovery from the Great recession.