We have Q4 nowcasts and tracking estimates as of 12/9, and implied Q4 from Lewis-Mertens-Stock WEI.
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GDP Prospects
Atlanta Fed nowcast at 3.4% q/q SAAR:
Disposition of Forces in Kherson Oblast, 28 Nov 2022
Here’s a picture from late yesterday:
Source: as of 28 Nov, militaryland.net, accessed 29 Nov 2022.
See latest report from ISW for context.
The “Trap” Closes: Kherson, 11/11/2022
Remember the question a skeptical JohnH asked on 9/2/2022, about the Ukrainian offensive? Here’s the answer:
Prediction Markets on Control of the Senate: 11/11/22
Looks like the betting is on Democratic control.
Prediction Market on Senate Conrol: Democratic at 93%
By simple addition of bets on 50 seats or less for Republicans — at 1030am Eastern Time, from PredictIt:
Balance of Forces, Kherson Oblast on 31 October 2022
As of 23:00 hrs (GMT+2) on 10/31 (Militaryland.net):
LNG Contribution to Goods Exports (Balance of Payments Basis)
Two Days before GDP Q3 Release: What Remains of the 2022H1 Recession Thesis?
Monthly indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus GDP and GDO, plus IHS-Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monthly GDP:
“How is that trap working out?”
That’s the question a skeptical JohnH asked 7 weeks ago, about the Ukrainian offensive. The answer seems to be “pretty well”.