Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Dimitrios Kanelis (Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Müun) and Pierre Siklos, (Wilfrid Laurier University and CAMA at ANU). The views expressed here are their own and do not reflect the official opinions of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Why Friends Shouldn’t Let Friends Mix and Match Seasonally Adjusted and Seasonally Unadjusted Data in Calculating Changes
Reader Bruce Hall comments in his defense of calculating an 18 month change using not seasonally adjusted CPI data, and then 6 months of seasonally adjusted data:
A Re-Post of a Note on Comment Moderation
If are to include a link to a YouTube video in your comment, please be aware that it might take me an extended time period for me to get around to publishing said comment (if ever at all). I need to check the content of the video, and sometimes (like when teaching is underway, etc.), time is at a premium. Videos from an established media outfit (Reuters, Bloomberg, NY Times, WSJ, CNN, etc.) are not subject to this proviso.
A Note on Comment Moderation
If are to include a link to a YouTube video in your comment, please be aware that it might take me an extended time period for me to get around to publishing said comment (if ever at all). I need to check the content of the video, and sometimes (like when teaching is underway, etc.), time is at a premium. Videos from an established media outfit (Reuters, Bloomberg, NY Times, WSJ, CNN, etc.) are not subject to this proviso.
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-January 2023
With the release of December 2022 industrial production (-0.7% vs. -0.1 Bloomberg consensus, m/m), we have the following picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, along with IHS Markit monthly GDP:
Barkley Rosser, Jr., 1948-2023
It’s with great sadness that I pass on news of the passing of Barkley Rosser, Jr., a regular commenter on this weblog (under his own name!). He was among many things an intellect of extremely wide-ranging interests, from bubbles in exchange rates to the dynamics of transition economies, nonlinear dynamics and catastrophe theory to ecological economics.
Year in Review, 2022: Vast Data Conspiracy by BEA, “Drill, baby, drill!”, and the Ills of Diversity
Last year’s recap was entitled “Year in Review, 2021: Cleaning Up What Trump Wrought”. This year, with rational policymaking returning, it’s time to erase stupidity.
“Foreign direct investment under uncertainty” up to 2019
A new paper in the Review of International Economics, coauthored with Caroline Jardet and Cristina Jude (both Banque de France). From the conclusion:
GDP Nowcasts as of 12/10: Growth in Q4
We have Q4 nowcasts and tracking estimates as of 12/9, and implied Q4 from Lewis-Mertens-Stock WEI.
GDP Prospects
Atlanta Fed nowcast at 3.4% q/q SAAR: