Relevant passage below:
The entire memo is here.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Some Scary Graphs: Manufacturing
Some NBER BCDC key indicators have peaked, as noted in this post. The more volatile manufacturing sector is showing stress as well.
Figure 1: Employment in manufacturing (blue), aggregate hours of nonsupervisory and production workers in manufacturing (teal), and manufacturing production (red), all in logs, 2019M01=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve via FRED, and author’s calculations.
Phill Swagel to Head CBO
That’s the news, according to Roll Call:
Senate and House budget leaders have chosen Phillip L. Swagel, a University of Maryland economist and former Treasury official in the George W. Bush administration, as the next director of the Congressional Budget Office, according to several sources with knowledge of the discussions.
For CoRev: Waiting for Soybeans to Break 800
Winning!
Caligula Trump Asks Who Will Rid Me of These Troublesome Economists
I have been remiss in not bringing people’s attention to this purge. From Politico:
Economists in the Agriculture Department’s research branch say the Trump administration is retaliating against them for publishing reports that shed negative light on White House policies, spurring an exodus that included six of them quitting the department on a single day in late April.
If you do not see a pattern in the bullying of Census, the extreme nontransparency of rules at BIS (Bureau of Industry and Security), and the attempt at Board-stuffing at the Fed, then you are blind.
A Re-Run: “Who Will Relent – Xi or Trump? On Actual and Perceived Payoff Matrices”
“Re-run” is an archaic phrase from my generation. It means to replay a previously recorded and broadcast television show. Here, this “rerun” seems appropos. I think that the cost to Xi of backing down is even greater given Trump’s tariff threat came close to the day of the 100th Anniversary of the May 4th Movement — a sensitive occasion for the CCP. From an August 2018 post.
Notable differences. US GDP fundamentals less robust than in August. Chinese growth fundamentals (in the short run) are stronger. Remember this despite the fact that that Liu He is joining the negotiating team coming to Washington, D.C.
Demented Things People Write
From reader JBH today:
Trump may well be Patton reincarnated as he was born ½ earth revolution after Patton nearly to the day. Enemies of America off balance and greatly confused by Trump’s classic Art of War style. Massive infrastructure rebuilding project coming. Trump will build that… along with the Wall.
I have seen this abbreviation “TDS” for “Trump Derangement Syndrome”. I’ll just say seems like plenty of people have just plain “DS”.
This is by way of alerting readers to the following: I will not censor any comments on reincarnation, George S. Patton, and sealed indictments. However, comments giving credence to Q-anon, racist jokes and misogynistic observations, and arguments that there were indeed “fine people on both sides” of the Charlottesville protests of 2017 will be censored.
New Estimates of Excess Mortality on Puerto Rico
It’s easy to forget that thousands of American died in the wake of Hurricane Maria, and more are set to die as the administration opposes further assistance to the Commonwealth. Yet, new estimates confirm earlier estimates, and give detail on the causes.
Proceedings Online: “Integration or Disintegration? The Future of Global Governance and the Global Economy”
The La Follette School Spring Symposium (April 3) is now online, showing insights from Dani Rodrik, Mary Lovely, Phillip Levy, Ian Coxhead, Lisa Martin, Krzysztof Pelc and Stephanie Rickard.
Panel 1: Trade and Globalization
Panel 2: Cooperation and Institutions
Who’s Supporting Moore for Fed? Institutional Affiliations of Signatories
Yesterday, I posted some observations on the signatories to the letter supporting Stephen Moore for the Fed letter posted [PDF]. Here for the sake of completeness is the list of the affiliations the signatories provided.