That is Stephen Moore, on June 27, 2022. He further notes: “Moore pointed to the GDP data on Monday, noting that the “first six months of the year have been negative for growth.” Here are the data around that time.
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Claudia Goldin Awarded Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2023 to
Claudia Goldin
Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
“for having advanced our understanding of women’s labour market outcomes”
She uncovered key drivers of gender differences in the labour market
Manufacturing on the Rise?
Here’s a picture of manufacturing activity: employment, hours worked, production, and new orders:
Policy Uncertainty over the Last Forty Years (Again)
It (still) seems a lot less uncertain since 2021M01, even without an ad hoc measure for the pandemic.
The Comprehensive Revisions: Little Change in Trajectory
Despite some views that GDP growth would be revised downward substantially (see discussion here), the recent trajectory of GDP and GDO was largely unchanged (even if the level over the period 2019 onward was). A lot of the revisions are summarized in this figure from Paweł Skrzypczyński:
Boloori & Saghafian, “Health and Economic Impacts of Lockdown Policies in the Early Stage of COVID-19 in the United States”
From the paper published in Service Science (2023), Alireza Boloori (University of Washington-Tacoma), and Soroush Saghafian (Harvard):
Ode on a Bruce Hall Link
This is a reprint of a post from 2020 entitled “The Worst Statistical Analysis I Have Seen This Year”, motivated by Mr. Bruce Hall‘s urging that we look at a Judith Curry link.
Jackboots in Popular Discourse, or “Where did we really see (govt) jackboots?”
In defending the Kudlow alternative math calculation of net job gains in first 30 months of the Trump and Biden administrations, Mr. Bruce Hall writes:
Almost Half a Century of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
It seems a lot less uncertain since 2021M01.
Conference: “Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Forecasting in a Changing Environment”
Sept 21-22, at the University of Padua, organized by International Institute of Forecasters, University of Padua, American University, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and IMF.