Bloomberg consensus 2.7%, GDPNow 2.3% as of today. Jim Hamilton comments on the release tomorrow.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Economic Confidence in the Future Declines
January Conference Board confidence index comes in at 104.1 vs. 105.7 Bloomberg consensus, down from 109.5 in December. A 5.4 point decline is about 1 standard deviation (2021M07-2024M12). More interestingly, expectations (as opposed to current situation) is also down.
Egg Prices and Egg Contracts for Difference
Egg prices and price index through December, egg CFDs through January.
Macroeconomic Policy Lecture 1 – Graphs for 2025
Started teaching on Wednesday. Here’re some graphs in the intro lecture on macro policy (now that content is gated, and only accessible to students).
Billion Dollar Disaster Cost to Year-to-Date (updated)
From NOAA to 2024, and guesstimate for January 2025:
CBO, Biden Administration, IMF and Other Forecasts
CBO released its ten year outlook today (as did the IMF in the WEO January update). Continued but decelerating growth, slightly less optimistic than Administration, noticeably less than the IMF, and FT-Booth survey.
Administration Forecast vs. FT-Booth, SPF vs. Nowcast
From the Economic Report of the President, 2025, forecast finalized 7 November 2024.
Impending Systemic Financial Crisis in Russia?
From Newsweek:
The President-Elect’s Economic Advisers
From Rappaport, Swanson, Duehren, in NYT yesterday, an interestingly monochromatic picture of the incoming economics team.
Guest Contribution: “Retrospective on the First Year of Trump’s Second Term”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared at Project Syndicate.