FOMC votes to reduce the Fed funds rate by 25bps with one dissent (Stephen Miran, on loan from CEA), who argued for 50 bps decline.
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Business Cycle Indicators at Mid-September
Industrial and manufacturing production, and retail sales, all beating consensus. Nonetheless, there’s a tendency toward trending sideways.
EJ Antoni, August 22: “The Coming Recession May Have Already Arrived”
That’s the title of an article reprinted at the Heritage.com, by current BLS Commissioner-nominee EJ Antoni,
The Thanks of a Grateful (Coffee-Drinking) Nation
Coffee prices up and away — in the US.
CBO, CEA-OMB-Treasury, and SPF GDP Forecasts: One Is Not Like the Others…
The CEA-OMB-Treasury (“Troika”) forecast looks out of line with the CBO projection and the SPF median forecast.
The Trump Economy Now: “Dead in the water”
That’s former CBO Director Doug Holtz-Eakin (seem minute 2 on this video) (h/t Philip Webre):
Sentiment Declines
Here are standardized indices for Michigan Sentiment, Conference Board Confidence, and Gallup Confidence.
Food at Home CPI – Accelerating Growth
From the CPI release:
I Laughed and Laughed and Laughed
From the Hill oped, Sen. Mullin opines:
Instantaneous Core Inflation
Up.