Following up on the drop in heavy truck sales in August, here’s the prediction from a simple probit of recession (NBER peak-to-trough) on current 12 month heavy truck sales growth:
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Sometimes I Think Trump Is Determined to Push the US into Recession: Heavy Truck Tariff Edition
Twenty Two Days in October
That’s what Kalshi estimates the shutdown duration, as of today. What do we miss from BLS if that transpires? BEA? EIA, Census?
Business Cycle Implications from the ADP Release
My nowcast of BLS private nonfarm payroll employment was for a decreaes of 78K, but with a very wide prediction interval. This is an aggregate number; however, we can infer certain trends from the disaggregate (by firm size) numbers from ADP.
FT-Booth GDP Forecast for 2025: 1.6%
That’s q4/q4, as noted in the survey results for September.
September Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment According to ADP
Since we won’t get the BLS September numbers on Friday, this is what we have.
White House Pulls EJ Antoni Nomination to BLS Chief
World Bank: “Accelerating Investment: Challenges and Policies”
A new volume from the World Bank, Office of Chief Economist:
CBO on Economic Costs of a Shutdown
Letter released today:
Conference Board: “A sharp deterioration in consumers’ views of the current economic situation weighed on confidence”
Per release today. In standardized terms, U.Michigan Sentiment and Conference Board Confidence are at the same level in September.