International Institute of Forecasters’ Conference starting on June 30th. I wish I had the chance to attend again this year.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
What Do Joseph Stiglitz, George A. Akerlof, Sir Angus Deaton, Claudia Goldin, Sir Oliver Hart, Eric S. Maskin, Daniel L. McFadden , Paul R. Milgrom, Roger B. Myerson, Edmund S. Phelps, Paul M. Romer, Alvin E. Roth, William F. Sharpe, Robert J. Shiller, Christopher A. Sims, and Robert B. Wilson Have In Common?
(1) They all have been awarded The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, and (2) they oppose Mr. Trump’s economic agenda.
GDP, GDO, GDP+
All have a positive gradient in Q1.
Donald Trump on Electric Ships/Boats
From a speech at Las Vegas (source: Newsweek):
Monthly GDP for April, and Other Indicators
Monthly GDP recovers.
Nowcasts Down
Atlanta and NY Fed lower growth rates for Q2
“Trump Guilty on All Counts”
From NYT and PredictIt.
“…females, they spend too much time with what’s going on in Hollywood”
That’s a quote from Eric Hovde, candidate for Wisconsin’s senator (WCPT820 Radio), who despairs about Americans’ lack of civic engagement. The entire quote:
“I like to say, sadly, with females, they spend too much time with what’s going on in Hollywood. And with males, they engross themselves too much with sports. And now it’s not just sports, it’s fantasy sports.”
Confidence, News and Sentiment in May
While (final) sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan survey remains surprisingly downbeat given observables, the decline needs to be put into context.
How Well Is Wisconsin Doing Macroeconomically?
At the beginning of April. Wisconsinites’ views on the state’s economy were fairly downbeat, despite some positive indicators [0]. On possible explanation is the perception of the economy’s state differs from respondent’s own conditions. Another possibility is that we have mismeasured the economy’s conditions.