From PredictIt on the Presidential Election Winner, 54 Dem / 48 Rep:
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Updating the “Flip”
Flip? Prediction Markets at July’s End
For party of winner, 50-50 as of noon ET today (PredictIt):
Growth in Swing States
As measured by the coincident index, over the last 3 months:
Odds: PredictIt 4pm ET
For Rep/Dem, 53 cents/51 cents.
Russia: Policy Rate Raised to 18%
As of today:
Prediction Markets on the Election: July 24, 2024
From PredictIt, 4:30pm ET: Republican/Democratic win probabilities back to where they were the day before the debate.
DJT (Trump Media and Technology Group/Nasdaq) As Predictor of Electoral Prospects
Reader pgl points out the recent heightened correlation between DJT (Nasdaq ticker) and Trump’s electoral fortunes.
News and Sentiment
A snapshot as of July:
“44th International Symposium On Forecasting | Dijon, France”
International Institute of Forecasters’ Conference starting on June 30th. I wish I had the chance to attend again this year.