Effective September 30th, some 105000 Federal workers who had signed up for the Deferred Resignation Program will be officially unemployed. The usual reference (correction per Ben Zipperer) period for counting employment, either in the CES or the CPS, is in the week including the 12th of the month — that is, this week; <I>the week for interviewing is the week including the 19th</I> (correction). If you think there’s only going to be a mild increase in private employment in October, coming after that in September (-17K from ADP, -77 to BLS from my nowcast), then the 100K drop will look meaningfully “bad”.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
EJ Antoni: Back to Smearing Data Sources
Memo from the Midwest: Thanks, Drumpf!
November futures for soybeans collapse upon Trump’s announcement:
What Releases Will We Miss? (updated for 31 day shutdown)
Kalshi has the shutdown lasting 29.4 days as of now, was up to 31.1 days earlier.
Scary Picture?
Prepping for my lecture on Monday, I plotted this graph of the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE) ratio against the 10 year Treasury yield.
Sentiment Mired at Global Financial Crisis Levels
With today’s release of University of Michigan Survey of Consumers (preliminary) data, we have this picture.
Big Data on Trump’s War on Consumers
Agricultural Exports through August
Down from January:
Not So Great Expectations: Farm Edition
The Administration is mulling a $10-14 billion bailout package for ag producers, with emphasis on soybean farmers (deja vu!). Farmer sentiment is pretty low relative to the exuberance note in the aftermath of Trump’s election, as this Purdue/CME survey released today shows:
What If the Supreme Court Strikes down the IEEPA Tariffs
A lot of money is at stake. Would CBP be able to refund the monies collected (using millions of paper checks…)?