Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by N. Kundan Kishor (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee).
Category Archives: Uncategorized
EPU Spikes: Government Shutdowns vs. 9/11, Lehman, “Bleach”, “Liberation Day”
I was wondering what happens to measured economic policy uncertainty during government shutdowns. In point of fact, EPU (as measured by the Baker, Bloom and Davis index) rises, but the increase is on average dwarfed by events like Covid-19/”Bleach” advice, and “Liberation Day”.
What Exactly Happened to the Dollar around “Liberation Day”: Illiquidity vs. No-Confidence
Some people argue the concurrent dollar decline and Treasury yield incrase was attributable to liquidity issues as repicing occurred against a backdrop of a rising share of price sensitive Treasury holders. Others that it was a flight away from the US dollar assets spurred by tariff uncertainty (see a discussion here). Here’s the picture people know, the dollar vs. US Treasurys:
Growth Reliance on the Tech Spending Boom
Two interesting pictures. First, the reliance of US GDP growth on Tech Spending.
Trade Policy Uncertainty
Nothing like a 100% tariff on (branded?) pharma to push up EPU-Trade
Sentiment Declines
U.Michigan index revised down from preliminary.
Business Cycle Indicators: Employment at or Below April 2025 Levels, Personal Income ex-Transfers Below
With the personal income for August, we have the following picture of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC). Personal income ex-current transfers and employment are more heavily weighted than other indicators.
Wisconsin Hammered by Tariffs?
Yes, if the Philadelphia Fed Early Benchmark is closer to right.
The Safety of the Nation Depends on … Upholstered Furniture and Bathroom Vanities
The President invokes Section 232 for national security tariffs. From NYT:
Awaiting August Consumption and Personal Income
Nonfarm payroll employment, personal income essentially flat, civilian employment down, since 2025M04 (“Liberation Day” month).