Over the past year, as of data available today:
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Deficit, Debt w/o the OBBBA
As Treasury yields jump, changes in fiscal policy come into scrutiny. By comparing the Feb 2026 to January 2025 CBO baselines, and isolating changes due to legislation, one can identify the impact on deficits and debt arising from the changes in current law.
Yield Curves under Trump 2.0
Reversing the pattern of declining curves, the curve has steepened since the War’s start.
Why Are Oil Prices So Low?
The odds of the Strait of Hormuz re-opening by July 1st is at all time lows; and yet the front month (July) Brent is at only $111.
Cliff Winston: Let Carmakers and Airlines Be “Free to Compete”
From the opinion pages of the WSJ:
Musings on the Path of Real Retail Sales ex-Auto, Gasoline
Down from February, both real and nominal:
Why Shouldn’t Yields Rise?
Friday’s jump in 10 year Treasury yields (10 bps), and the 30 year yield nearing 5% alarmed markets. But why?
Debt and the debt trajectory are up. Fed Chair Designate Warsh wants to shrink the Fed balance sheet, even as Trump continues his assault on Fed independence. And don’t expect the foreign sector to rush in to help…
Gasoline Implications of a Higher EV Fleet Share
One of the reasons why the impact of higher gasoline prices might be muted relative to the past is the increased fuel efficiency of US autos, in small part due to a higher share of electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles in the US fleet. It could’ve been larger.
Trump in China: 磕頭?
Lots of gushing praise by President Trump of President Xi. Not so much from Xi. I’d characterize this as anything but tough talk from the US side. Continue reading
Nowcasts of GDP Diverge
For Q2, GDPNow (q/q AR) is at 4%, while St Louis Fed is at 0.8%.