Article here.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
The Russian Economy: How Many Contingent Liabilities?
It seems like a funny question to ask given Russian government debt to GDP isn’t that large. Craig Kennedy argues that taking into account forced bank lending means that (contingent) government liabilities are much larger than conventionally-defined public liabilities (report here). The summary:
“Trump administration wants to un-fire nuclear safety workers but can’t figure out how to reach them”
From NBC. I’d say emblematic of the smash and attempt to repair approach of the Trump 2.0 administration.
EPU after Reciprocal Tariffs Announced, Before New Steel, Aluminum Tariffs
Up, up and away.
Correlation or Causation?
We know that correlation does not necessarily mean causation. But sometimes you gotta wonder, especially as Mr. Trump’s administration is busily dismantling the CIA. First, GW Bush ignore the PDB of August 8, 2001, on “Bin Laden determined to strike in US”. Then Trump 1.0 eliminates the NSC directorate on pandemic preparedness before the Covid-19 pandemic (and apparently with the exception of Peter Navarro(!) ignores warnings about Covid).
“Trump does not rule out sending US troops to Gaza”
MilitaryNews just now:
Trump is not ruling out sending U.S. troops to secure Gaza, saying in response to a reporter’s question: “As far as Gaza is concerned, we’ll do what is necessary. If it’s necessary, we’ll do that.”
Fourth (maybe Third) Largest Tax Increase Ever – China 2025 Tariffs
No tariffs yet on Canada, Mexico (and EU for that matter). Still, 10% on $427 bn imports (on top of previous tariffs) is a big deal.
Uncertainty – Economic and Trade Policy, Day by Day
Through 2/2/2025 (for EPU):
Bessent’s 3-3-3 “Plan” in the Context of 2024Q4 Advance GDP Release
Actual hit GDPNow nowcast of 2.3%, q/q AR (see Jim’s post for a discussion) Still, achieving Treasury Secretary Bessent’s 3% annual growth (in addition to 3% deficits and additional 3 million barrels oil) is going to be tough.
Hiring Freeze at the FAA
From article 8 days ago:
…the White House has put a hiring freeze in place, prohibiting the replacement of open government positions or the creation of new ones while the administration evaluates reductions in the workforce. The White House plans to release a memorandum with further guidance within 90 days. This has drawn criticism from lawmakers as the FAA has been ramping up controller hiring.