From Furman, Russ and Shambaugh:
[t]ariffs are imposed in a regressive manner – in part because expenditures on traded goods are a higher share of income and non-housing consumption among lower income households, but also due to explicit regressivity within categories.
Last year’s recap was subtitled “Ascent of the Blowhards”. Let’s hope the triumph is only temporary, and rational policy analysis once again becomes a valued commodity.
As we get more clarity on the nature of fiscal and mass deportation policies under a Trump Administration, it seems useful to consider what happens to the output gap.
As noted in my last post, the collision of expansionary fiscal and counter-cyclical monetary policy will result in an appreciated dollar. How much more appreciated?
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared on November 9th in Project Syndicate.
As of today, measured economic policy uncertainty hit 468.
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The implication of a (massive) revision to the expected path of government debt relative to baseline is an increase in the slope of the yield curve. Some portion comes from the expectations hypothesis of the term structure, some from an increase in the risk premium. [lecture notes on portfolio crowding out] [lecture notes on expectations hypothesis of term structure]
Figure 1: Yield curve as of 8 November (blue), and 9 November (green). Source: US Treasury.
