A reminder that it’s still possible to save tens of thousands of lives, with a return to competence and science in the waning days of the Trump administration (it goes without saying management would improve immeasurably in the Biden-Harris administration). Covid-19 hospitalizations are soaring. Seven day rolling average of deaths is at 970, showing a rapid ascent (it’s rising 19% per week). How long can employment continue to grow as the pandemic again surges?
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Macroeconomic Management in the New Administration
today, as I was writing a short comment on the dollar’s prospects, I realized how much my views were informed by who was likely to be managing the macroeconomy. Just to make this point concrete, consider the economic team under Trump, as compared to under Obama as the latter confronted the Great Recession:
Covid-19 Weekly Fatalities and Excess Fatalities
Fatalities are likely rising; CDC determined fatalities consistently below alternative estimates in recent weeks; excess fatalities are revised upward (a lot, again).
Yet More Economists against Trump
In addition to previous open letters, here is one released today, with over 750 signatories:
Alan Blinder on the Biden Agenda
The Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy (CROWE) sponsored a series of talks on the election and economic issues. Yesterday’s talk was by Princeton’s Alan Blinder (former CEA member, former Fed Vice Chair). His talk with Q&A is here (YouTube).
Other visitors included Lee Ohanian, Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, Casey Mulligan and Brian Riedl (Manhattan Institute).
Guest Contribution: “Post COVID-19 Exit strategies and Emerging Markets Economic Challenges”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California) and Hiro Ito (Portland State University) .
Some People Think Covid-19 Hospitalizations Are Level
Reader Bruce Hall writes yesterday:
Cases continue to escalate; deaths do not; hospitalizations are basically level. The hyperbole around cases is unfortunate because infections are not categorized for action since asymptomatic to severe are lumped together.
Wisconsin Covid-19 Trends
This graph is for those who believe reports of negative outcomes Wisconsin are “fake news”.
Figure 1: Wisconsin current Covid-19 hospitalizations (blue, left log scale), fatalities as of date reported (red, right scale). Source: Covid Tracking Project, accessed 10/14/2020.
From Wisconsin State Journal (10/13/2020):
Citing inaction by the state Legislature, a St. Croix County judge on Monday rejected a request by a conservative legal group for a temporary injunction against Gov. Tony Evers’ statewide mask mandate.
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The GOP-led Legislature has met once since the pandemic began, in April, to take up legislation in response to COVID-19. Lawmakers and Evers ultimately signed what officials on both sides of the aisle described as “imperfect” legislation.
The package aimed to complement federal aid allocated to the state, included additional Medicaid funding, allowed for increased unemployment benefits from the federal government and waived a one-week waiting period for benefits until February. The bill also allowed the state budget committee to spend up to $75 million during the public health emergency on coronavirus-related needs, though the committee has not exercised that authority.
Vos and Fitzgerald did not respond to requests for comment on Monday.
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Johnson, who tested positive for COVID-19 earlier this month, said he is opposed to the governor’s mask mandate.
October IMF World Economic Outlook
Slightly higher 2020 growth for advanced economies forecasted – but big challenges moving forward
For the Record: Covid-19 Hospitalizations, Fatalities
Covid-19 related current hospitalizations are up; administratively defined fatalities are up slightly. However the pattern displayed in figure 1 is unsettling (a rejoinder to all those folks who think hospitalization is falling, and think cases rising is merely a reflection of more testing; e.g., here).