The University of Wisconsin’s Department of Economics was represented at the Federal Reserve System’s national Fed Challenge competition, this last Thursday. Wisconsin participated, after prevailing in the Chicago region’s competition.
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Category Archives: Uncategorized
Introducing DBnomics
Researchers have long relied upon the St. Louis Fed’s FRED and ALFRED databases for (primarily) US series. Now, Banque de France, CEPREMAP and France Stratégie have launched a new free database of international macro data, DBnomics.
When Can We Stop Winning? Midwest Ag Edition
“I’ve never seen things this bad,” Altom said. “I know several farmers who hired lawyers, to see if they can sue over the [soybean and corn storage] pricing and fees issues.”
“Who is Paying for the Trade War with China?”
That’s the title of a new report published by a consortium of European academic institutes, and written by Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek and Gabriel Felbermayr. I don’t have a problem with the analysis, which is mostly straightforward. It’s just a problem with the title.
Odds on a Trade Truce: Soybean Edition
The gap between US and Brazil soybean prices is (finally) shrinking:
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Always Learning: They Make 300 Feet White Bags
For soybeans, among other things.
Source: Bloomberg. Notes: 300-foot plastic bags sit filled with soybeans and corn. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
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Which Observation Is Not Like the Others: US Inward FDI Again
Plotting nominal dollar value of inward FDI understates the collapse in inflows. Here is the ratio to GDP, and — considering how FDI covaries with the stock market’s level — the real S&P 500 (As I recall, working on this topic during the dot.com boom, the dollar’s strength was the other important factor — but that hasn’t changed much over the last three years.)
Out of Sample Regression Prediction of Mass Shooting Fatalities
Does a Trump dummy “work”? Reader sam writes:
i think you’re putting too much weight into too few observations.
Some things to make your analysis more convincing 1) show the if predictive accuracy increased with a trump dummy OUT OF SAMPLE or 2) try placing the ‘trump dummy’ variable a few months before or a few months after and see if that changes the coefs. i doubt you’ll see much of an effect.
Three Graphs and a Regression Equation
And we are less than one-third of the way through November.
Why Kobach Lost
This graph of Kansas employment during the Brownback years is suggestive.
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