Suppose it’s the end of August, and one want to get the best estimate of Wisconsin real GDP for Q2. As of August, only Q1 Wisconsin GDP is available. What’s the best guess of of Q2 GDP, keeping in mind the number of monthly indicators at the state level is much lower than that for the Nation. Here’s my tentative answer.
Category Archives: Wisconsin
Nowcasting Wisconsin NFP Employment
Can we use national employment to nowcast Wisconsin employment? This endeavor is somewhat complicated by the pandemic. With DWD’s release today, we can evaluate the fit of the model.
August 2024 Wisconsin Economic Outlook Forecast
On WisconsinEye: “The Economy on the Campaign Trail”
Mike Knetter and I joined Lisa Pugh for a conversation yesterday about the economy and the election. Here’s the video:
How’s Wisconsin Employment Doing?
July was down, and we won’t have August numbers until September 20th (maybe a day earlier from DWD). Using official nationwide nonfarm payroll employment, Wisconsin employment is growing.
Reminder: Wisconsin Exports under Trump
If you forgot what the trade landscape looked like — and how Trump’s policies impacted Wisconsin — here’s a picture of Wisconsin real exports during and after (was thinking about this, prepping for WisconsinEye show tomorrow, where Mike Knetter will be talking).
For Labor Day 2024: Four Graphs from “The State of Working Wisconsin, 2024”
On this blog, I intermittently post on Wisconsin macro aggregates. For micro assessments of Wisconsin’s labor markets and household welfare, I turn to High Road Strategy Center’s reports. From the 2024 report, here are four key graphs.
Layoffs and Mass Layoffs in Wisconsin
A few days ago, Eric Hovde spoke about impending mass layoffs. I couldn’t figure out what he was talking about; here’re some indicators for Wisconsin, and for the nation.
Hovde on Impending Mass Layoffs, Disinflation vs. Deflation, and “Illegals” (His Word, Not Mine)
See on WisconsinEye.
Wisconsin Employment in July: Cooling
Preliminary NFP count is down 6.5K (on 3 million), unemployment rate up 0.1 ppts.