The Philadelphia Fed yesterday posted the results of a revision of both coincident and leading indices, as explained here. The resulting plot for California, Kansas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and the US is shown below.
Category Archives: Wisconsin
Wisconsin Economy Watch 1
Wisconsin employment has now fallen below pre-recession peaks…
[Updated, with comments from WMC and Lt. Gov. Kleefisch; warning – your head will hurt after reading]
Figures released this afternoon indicate the three month change in nonfarm payroll employment and civilian employment have been negative for two and three months respectively. Since the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development (DWD) memo makes no mention of this, I think it useful to document the negative trends in Wisconsin employment.
Wisconsin: Real Wages Are the Same as They Were in January 2011
In my interview with NPR’s Jim Zarolli, the question came up about wage developments. Embarrassingly, I had no opinion, having not looked at the data (I know that doesn’t stop some people from opining; in any case, that question and lots of other stuff didn’t make it into the piece that aired). Well, I looked up the data, and surprisingly the level of real hourly earnings in May 2015 is the same as it was in January 2011(!).
Discussing Walker’s Record on the Wisconsin Economy
We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Open Records Laws (in Wisconsin)
Apparently, we don’t need taxes on tobacco products either! [And Republicans refuse to identify lawmaker behind measure restricting access to legislative records]
I guess William Cronon won’t have to worry any more about having his emails scoured by the Wisconsin GOP. From the Wisconsin State Journal:
Legislative Republicans on Thursday passed sweeping changes to the state’s open records law that would dramatically curtail the kind of information available to the public about the work that public officials do.
And for Wisconsin’s Economic Outlook …
Over the last three months, there has been a substantial downshift in the level of economic activity and six-month forecasted growth, according to the Philadelphia Fed.
Wisconsin Downturn?
In Down, Down, Down, I noted Wisconsin’s three month downward trend in nonfarm payroll and private nonfarm payroll employment, and as I cautioned, even this level of employment would likely be further downward revised when the QCEW data were incorporated in the next benchmark. The household survey based data released by the BLS adds yet more confirmation of a decrease in employment (h/t GeoffT). Monday’s newly released Philadelphia Fed coincident indices reflect those labor market trends.
Using QCEW Data to Estimate NFP in Wisconsin
Wisconsin released Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data yesterday (as well as nonfarm payroll employment (NFP)) [1] [2]. We can use these data to update the estimate of nonfarm payroll employment (which is important given concerns about the accuracy of the establishment survey based series). Doing so worsens the employment performance through 2014.
Down, Down, Down
Wisconsin employment in May. (Update 6/23 to include growth decomposition)
New Gross State Product Figures Reveal…Wisconsin (Still) Lags
Some individuals have questioned the accuracy of the Philadelphia Fed coincident indices as measures of economic activity. Recently released Gross State Product (GSP) data confirms the pattern previously identified: Wisconsin lags the Nation, and its neighbor Minnesota. Thank goodness for Kansas to make Wisconsin look good!