A flurry of investment bank newsletters (Wells Fargo, GS) impels me to look at what happened to the aggregate trade balance in the wake of Trump’s tariff hikes:
Business Cycle Indicators: Employment along with Coincident Index, VMT, Heavy Trucks, and Sahm Rule
Here’s a picture of the key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee used in their business cycle chronology:
March Employment Indicators for Nonfarm Payroll
The employment surprise in context.
Presidential Election: Polls vs. Prediction Markets
From Real Clear Politics and PredictIt, today:
Some Wisconsin Macro Indicators through February (and Thoughts on the Wisconsin GOP Imagined Recession that Wasn’t)
Coincident index for February out today.
2024 Lampman Memorial Lecture: Susan Dynarski
Guest Contribution: “The Size of Major Currency Zones and Their Determinants”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written Hiro Ito (Portland State University). This web post was posted in RIETI’s columns series.
A Really Very Long Series on the Real Rate
With implications for growth and demographic influences. From Rogoff, Rossi, and Schmelzing (AER, 2024):
2023Q4 GDP Advances in All 50 States; Real Personal Income Declines in 5
From BEA:
An Event Study: News and Trump Media and Technology Group, 4/1/2024
The efficient markets hypothesis indicates that new information should induce a revision to the present discounted value of future dividends, and hence a change in the market value. Apparently news came today.