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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

The Trump Economy Now: “Dead in the water”

That’s former CBO Director Doug Holtz-Eakin (seem minute 2 on this video) (h/t Philip Webre):

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This entry was posted on September 13, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Sentiment Declines

Here are standardized indices for Michigan Sentiment, Conference Board Confidence, and Gallup Confidence.

 

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This entry was posted on September 12, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Wisconsin Employment in the Context of the Preliminary Benchmark Revision

Like national employment, Wisconsin employment was downwardly revised (preliminary), by 79K. Splicing in the change as BLS would do yields the following picture of Wisconsin NFP.

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This entry was posted on September 12, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Food at Home CPI – Accelerating Growth

From the CPI release:

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This entry was posted on September 11, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

I Laughed and Laughed and Laughed

From the Hill oped, Sen. Mullin opines:

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This entry was posted on September 11, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Instantaneous Core Inflation

Up.

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This entry was posted on September 11, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

“What New Have We Learned about US Dollar Dominance As a Reserve Currency?”

That’s the title of my keynote talk at the 27th INFER conference (Rome), an excellent exchange of ideas and comments on economics.

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This entry was posted on September 11, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Alternative Business Cycle Indicators

Freight transportation services, vehicle miles traveled, civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept all below recent peaks. Heavy truck sales down 17% y/y.

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This entry was posted on September 11, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Why We Teach International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment Together

Or, why should a bunch of ICE agents running amok in a Hyundai-LG factory have an impact on trade policy uncertainty?

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This entry was posted on September 9, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

White House Tries to (Ineptly) Spin the Preliminary Benchmark Release

From the White House today:

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This entry was posted on September 9, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • Expectations, Current Situation, Sentiment Decline to Near Record Low Levels
  • Nowcasting Private NFP using ADP Data
  • DonaldTrump Rex (would be)
  • Housing in Recession: Interest Rates or Policy Uncertainty
  • ADP Private NFP and Implied BLS NFP [updated]

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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