Updating this post, probability of recession in April is 72%.
Rising Expected Unit Cost Inflation Quantified
From Atlanta Fed:
Symposium: “Europe amidst Uncertainty”
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at the Pyle Center, UW Madison.
WEO, PIIE, WSJ Forecasts [updated w/adjusted GDPNow at -0.4%]
The IMF is pretty upbeat on the US economy…relatively speaking.
Guest Contribution: “How to Forecast a Recession”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter vesion, was published by Project Syndicate.
Nowcast vs. Nowcast: Tariff-Jumping Imports as a Factor
Goldman Sachs puts Q1 growth at 0.1% q/q AR close to adjusted GDPNow, while NY Fed indicates 2.58%. The St. Louis Fed “news” index stands at 2.83%.
Annotated Graph of SP500 and Dollar
Including “Liberation Day” and “termination”, down 15%, and 7.9% (log terms) relative to post-inauguration peaks (through 4/22 close).
IMF, WSJ Forecasts for 2025 US Growth Revised Down
In today’s newly released IMF World Economic Outlook, 2025 Q4/Q4 growth revised down by 0.9 ppts from January. Compare against WSJ mean revised down by 1.27 ppts. GDPNow adjusted for gold imports is on track to match WSJ forecast.
Why Aren’t You Calling? (Trump to Beijing)
From Bloomberg, “Trump Presses China to Make Tariff Offer to Calm Trade War”:
Wisconsin Policy Forum: “Turbulence for Wisconsin’s Export Economy”
An excellent overview is provided in this report, out today — although I’d say the title likely understates the situation confronting Wisconsin.