Peter Schiff today:
This morning has seen a trifecta of weak economic data. Aug. PMI & ISM manufacturing both came out even weaker than expected, while July construction spending unexpectedly fell. It’s becoming clear the #economy is entering a #recession just as #inflation is poised to turn higher.
Including monthly GDP out today from S&P Global Market Insights, and preliminary benchmark NFP:
When a purported data analyst says something strange, who you gonna call?
And could it be that Ancient Aliens helped build the Pyramids? Sure!
On this blog, I intermittently post on Wisconsin macro aggregates. For micro assessments of Wisconsin’s labor markets and household welfare, I turn to High Road Strategy Center’s reports. From the 2024 report, here are four key graphs.
EJ Antoni (Heritage) is dubious about GDPNow’s (and other nowcasts) regarding Q3 growth. From X aka Twitter today:
Actually, no — but perhaps a fast food nation in recession. In arguing that output is mismeasured, so much so we’ve been in recession for the past four years, Peter St. Onge (Heritage) and Jeffrey Tucker (Brownstone Institute) write:
Various studies have shown that since 2019 fast food prices — a gold standard in financial markets for measuring true inflation — have outpaced official CPI by between 25% and 50%.
Recall the preliminary benchmark deducted 818K from the March NFP reading.
M/M Core PCE inflation at consensus.
July nominal consumption growth at consensus (+0.5%). Month-on-Month annualized real consumption growth at 4.5%, with June revised up from 2.6% to 3.2%. Moreover, annualized personal income ex-transfers grew 1.9% in July. Here is a snapshot of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.