Beats consensus/preliminary (49.5 vs. 48.9), rising above May final (44.8) — but still low:
Consensus on Canadian GDP
Economists in a Bloomberg survey now see Canada’s economy expanding just 0.7% this year after shrinking in the first quarter.
Nowcasts/Forecasts of GDP
GDPNow updated downward:
LLMs and IMF Advice, Dollar Trinity, Risk-On/Risk -Off and Loanly Govts: (Almost) Live-Blogging ISOM 2026
Jeffrey Frankel and Hélène Rey organized a great conference for the NBER’s International Seminar on Macroeconomics, hosted by the Sveriges Riksbank; topics covered were wide and diverse. The program is here:
Business Cycle Indicators as of End-June
Personal income, consumption, slightly above consensus; manufacturing and trade industry sales (April), and 3rd release GDO:
Guest Contribution: “1776”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version in Project Syndicate.
Retail Sales and Retail Sales ex-Auto, Gas
Here’re some business cycle indicators with deflated retail sales:
Industrial, Manufacturing Production and Business Cycle Indicators
IP at 0.1% m/m vs. 0.3% consensus.
Small Firm Employment and Business Cycle Prospects
From ADP, one sees that employment growth has accelerated, small firm employment, and employment share, has decelerated.
Sentiment Beats Expectations, Slightly
From U.Michigan, preliminary sentiment at 48.9 vs. 46.1 consensus.