I think we’ll need these sooner than you think. But legislation has just been passed to disable these supports.
Guess the Time Series
Google Trends accessed today:
Quick and Dirty Check on Whether Steel Prices Have Fallen
Recall CEA has asserted that imported goods prices (incl tariffs) have fallen relative to domestically produced, based on conjoining 2017 IO tables and PCE data. I wondered whether imported goods prices and prices of close substitutes have fallen. To investigate, I do something simpler: look at steel import prices (ex-tariffs) and steel PPI (incl. tariffs).
Bertaut, von Beschwitz and Curcuru/FRB: “The International Role of the U.S. Dollar – 2025 Edition”
FEDS note published on Friday:
Consumer Price Level – Alternatives
How’s dropping prices for everyday folks going?
How Much Longer Can We Trust Our Economic Statistics?
The Commerce Department eliminated two advisory committees on economic statistics gathering (see Marketplace). BLS received some additional funds in March as part of a continuing resolution; however the Trump budget proposal includes an 8% reduction in budget in nominal terms.
Why Trade Uncertainty – Illustrated
Here’re the Baker-Bloom-Davis categorical trade policy uncertainty measure and the Caldara et al. Trade Policy Uncertainty index. Why are these measures elevated? In my mind, why aren’t they even higher?
EJ Antoni/Heritage: “Back from the Brink: Trump’s Economy Soars Instead of Crashing”
What’s this guy smoking? From the article (originally Wash Examiner):
Guest Contribution: “Recession Detection Along the Anticipation-Precision Frontier”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Pascal Michaillat (UCSC).
“Groceries” under Trump
ERS predicts 2.2% increase in food-at-home prices in 2025. Continue reading