That’s the question a skeptical JohnH asked 7 weeks ago, about the Ukrainian offensive. The answer seems to be “pretty well”.
How Do You Know Where You’re Going If You Don’t Know Where You Are? (China Statistics Edition)
A question becoming increasingly relevant as China cuts back on statistical releases. From Burn-Murdoch at FT:
Nowcasting and More: “The 24th Federal Forecasters Conference”
The Federal Forecasters Consortium conference took place a month ago, but the video links are now up,
- Morning announcements and Fred Joutz Retrospective (Fred discussion starts at 17:50) [slides]
- Invited Panel Session Dr. Baoline Chen (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis), Dr. Neil Mehrotra (U.S. Department of the Treasury), Dr. Jason Schachter (U.S. Census Bureau), moderated by Neil R. Ericsson (Federal Reserve Board).
- Special Afternoon Session: Simple vs. Complex Chaired by Kevin Dubina. “Thinking through the pros and cons” by Anne Morse; “Evidence from Forecasting Competitions” by Neil R. Ericsson; “Why do projections?” by Maria Hussain
Evaluating “Recession Fears”
It seems that recession is imminent, according to some accounts (60% in 10/14 Bloomberg panel, 63% in the WSJ October survey, 100% in the Wong/Winger model). WaPo “As recession fears rise, Washington begins to weigh how to respond”. What do some models say about recession and growth?
Weekly Macroeconomic Activity through 10/15
As measured by NY Fed WEI, OECD Weekly Tracker, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI.
Economic Policy Making Agencies in China
From GS:
China Q3 GDP Is a Mystery
It would’ve been a partial mystery even if NBS had released the number. Now it’s even more of a mystery, as the release has been delayed indefinitely (Trade data is a mystery too…)
Forecasts of Russian GDP, pre- and post-
From Heli Simola, BOFIT, in “War’s price tag…”, consensus forecasts from February and from September:
Jeffry Frieden: “The Politics of Exchange Rates” (podcast)
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-October 2022
Industrial and manufacturing production both at 0.4% m/m growth, above consensus (0.1% and 0.2%, respectively) in September, showing resumed growth. This is the picture of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus IHS-Markit monthly GDP.