From the betting markets (Kalshi.com) yesterday:
The Mother of All Magic Asterisks
The House Budget, as expected, is not a serious document — see the tables. I’ll skip the fantasy spending cuts, and focus on revenue plans. From CRFB:
Dis-Inversion and Re-Inversion over the Last 3 Months
Not sure what it means, but I suspect heightened growth anxieties for the 4 month to 3 years horizon.
Consumer Expectations Crash, 1 Year Ahead Inflation Expectations Soar as 5 Year Ahead Hits Record
5 year ahead inflation at 3.5%, highest since 1995M04. From Michigan Survey of Consumers:
Bringing Prices Down: A Progress Report
We’re a month into Trump 2.0. We don’t have February’s prices yet, but since Trump was going to do everything “Day 1”, I thought it useful to take a look at various indices.
What — If Anything — Do Re-inverting Term Spreads Mean?
Open question – we’re not quite there yet.
No Recession until 2025Q4 (Assuming Reciprocal Tariffs w/Retaliation) [graph corrected!]
And CBO’s January projection:
NBC News: “USDA says it accidentally fired officials working on bird flu and is trying to rehire them”
From NBC News.
EPU and Expected Inflation
From election day, five year inflation breakeven up 33 bps; EPU up 231. What could go wrong?
Anthony Diercks, Daniel Soques and Jing Cynthia Wu: “Perfect Recession Indicators”
From the abstract to the paper: