From Trading Economics today:
Hello ‘nversion, My Old Friend…[updated]
As of today’s close, the constant maturity 10yr-3mo spread is … -0.6% (as of 2/26 close):
The Betting on Measles
Sad news informs the revision to odds on measles cases this year:
Weekly Macro Indicators – Growth at about Trend
For data available through 2/15. New datapoints tomorrow, for data available through 2/22.
Conference Board: “Pessimism about the future returned”
Conference Board index at 98.3 vs. 102.7 Bloomberg consensus, down from upwardly revised 105.3. Here is a picture of (standardized) U.Michigan Sentiment, Conference Board and Gallup Confidence measures.
EPU Today: 655
A big jump:
The 50th anniversary of Alice Rivlin’s tenure as the founding director of CBO
From the CBO website:
NFP Prospects
Kalshi betting right now is for 300K reduction in force for the Federal government (h/t Torsten Slok):
“so called economists at the Fed”
That’s EJ Antoni talking on something called Wealthion at minute 3:30.
A Fed Inflation Credibility Index under Trump
Using 5 year ahead inflation expectations from the Michigan survey, not so much erosion in Trump 1.0. Trump 2.0 so far is another story.