From WSJ today:
Inflation Surprises Illustrated
For CPI and PPI vis a vis Bloomberg consensus:
Eggs Retail up 18%, PPI 32% Month-on-Month(!)
PPI figure on seasonally adjusted by author data. NSA m/m change is 36.5% (log differences).
Egg Prices in January — $4.95/Dozen Grade A, Large
Outpacing ERS forecast. Implied futures suggest higher prices yet.
Egg Prices – A Continued Upward March?
Tomorrow, we’ll get a reading on January egg prices at the consumer level. With futures prices at about $5.2 in December and $6.65 in January, I’d guess retail egg prices will have gone up. Futures are at $7.65 so far in February.
Year-Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations in January: 3%-3.3%
From Michigan, NY Fed, and Atlanta Fed SoFIE:
Business Cycle Indicators, with Monthly GDP and Household Employment Research Series
S&P Global Market Intelligence has put up monthly GDP through December. Here’s a picture of NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee indicators along with monthly GDP.
Inflation Expectations, by Party
The Michigan survey of Consumers revealed that Republican respondents expected one year inflation to be zero as of January 2025. From Torsten Slok:
EPU after Reciprocal Tariffs Announced, Before New Steel, Aluminum Tariffs
Up, up and away.
One Year Inflation Expectations Upside Surprise
Michigan 1 year expectations at 4.3% vs 3.3% Bloomberg consensus.