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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

GDPNow Assuming No Import Effects: Still Close to Stall Speed

Assume no revision to GDP prospects from the imports data, as Goldman Sachs did. What is the path of GDP growth, and the level of GDP?

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This entry was posted on March 4, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

EPU on the Rise

EPU through 3/3/2025:

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This entry was posted on March 4, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Soybeans (Again!)

Deja vu all over again – China retaliates, and again soybeans are on the list.

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This entry was posted on March 4, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Recession (Betting) Odds Rising

From Kalshi, 10am CT:

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This entry was posted on March 4, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Spot the “Events” in this Event Study

Dow Jones:

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This entry was posted on March 4, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Trade War w/Canada, Mexico

From McKibben/Noland (PIIE):

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This entry was posted on March 3, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

The Inversion Continues

While VIX is elevated:

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This entry was posted on March 3, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Nowcasted Consumption Falls to Stall Speed

A week ago, Atlanta Fed’s nowcast of consumption was 2.2% q/q annualized; now it’s zero.

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This entry was posted on March 3, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Policy Uncertainty

High frequency through 3/2:

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This entry was posted on March 3, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Have Nowcasts and Forecasts Ever Dropped so Quickly When Not about to Go into a Recession?

Asking for a friend. From Atlanta Fed today:

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This entry was posted on March 3, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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