End of week spreads:
Recession Outlook Darkening
From betting markets, economists:
Instantaneous Inflation Rising
Year-on-Year looks better.
Off a Cliff
NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee key indicators. Consumption (preliminary) falls markedly.
Egg Prices Keep on Rising
From Trading Economics today:
Hello ‘nversion, My Old Friend…[updated]
As of today’s close, the constant maturity 10yr-3mo spread is … -0.6% (as of 2/26 close):
The Betting on Measles
Sad news informs the revision to odds on measles cases this year:
Weekly Macro Indicators – Growth at about Trend
For data available through 2/15. New datapoints tomorrow, for data available through 2/22.
Conference Board: “Pessimism about the future returned”
Conference Board index at 98.3 vs. 102.7 Bloomberg consensus, down from upwardly revised 105.3. Here is a picture of (standardized) U.Michigan Sentiment, Conference Board and Gallup Confidence measures.
EPU Today: 655
A big jump: