GDP is a measure of output from the spending side. A standard alternative measure is Gross Domestic Output (GDO), the average of GDP and GDI.
A Closer Look at Employment
Transportation and warehousing boomed. Federal government workers on leave, taking buyouts not included yet (per convention).
Employment and Business Cycle Indicators
Continued growth apparent, although NFP employment pertains to first half of April.
Measured EPU on the Rise, Again
Through May 1st:
Monthly Consumption, Personal Income, Mfg/Trade Indus Sales
And other NBER BCDC indicators.
Economy stumbles into 2025
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP fell at a 0.3% annual rate in the first quarter. One can make excuses for the number, but I’m not feeling optimistic.
100 Day Marker: Economic Optics Not Great
GDPNow at -1.5% q/q AR. But final sales to domestic purchasers little changed.
A Timeline for Recession?
Torsten Slok’s VTRR (Voluntary Trade Reset Recession):
Safe No More? Two Pictures
Prepping slides for macro, found these interesting correlations.
More Nowcasts
As of today: