What’s this guy smoking? From the article (originally Wash Examiner):
Guest Contribution: “Recession Detection Along the Anticipation-Precision Frontier”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Pascal Michaillat (UCSC).
“Groceries” under Trump
ERS predicts 2.2% increase in food-at-home prices in 2025. Continue reading
CEA: “Imported Goods Have Been Getting Cheaper Relative to Domestically Produced Goods”
That’s the title of a report by the Trump administration CEA earlier this month. It’s an interesting question whether this is the relevant question or not.
EJ Antoni on the No Tariff Pass Through Thesis
Thanks, Drumpf
WSJ mean survey forecast relative to 2023-2024 trend.
Economic Policy Uncertainty and Economic Uncertainty
Policy uncertainty has remains high; does it matter for economic uncertainty?
Tariffs in the Data
From CPI, note the CPI furniture and appliances category:
Business Cycle Indicators – Industrial, Manufacturing Production, Retail Sales
Up for all three, although production essentially flat since February, and real retail sales down since March. Indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC in Figure 1:
WSJ July Survey: 2025 q4/q4 Growth at 1%
From WSJ July survey out today: