Currency manipulation or not? The Treasury’s semiannual foreign exchange report, released yesterday, says no, contra Mr. Trump’s statement a few months ago.
Is Employment Growth (a Lot) Lower Than We Think?
Yesterday’s employment release indicated a deceleration in nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment growth. Data from other sources suggests that the deceleration over the last year is more marked than indicated by the establishment survey.
Wisconsin, Minnesota and US GDP over the Walker Years
State level GDP data for 2019Q3 are out today. If you were wondering, Wisconsin lagged both the US and Minnesota. Since 18Q4 (the last full Walker quarter), Wisconsin growth has matched Minnesota growth.
Required Reading on the History of (Macro)economic Thought
Why was the financial crisis of 2008 so surprising to so many macroeconomists (but from my experience, a little less so for international finance economists familiar with financial crises in emerging markets…)? From the conclusion to George Akerlof’s “What They Were Thinking Then: The Consequences for Macroeconomics during the Past 60 Years” in the latest JEP.
Shouldn’t we win the trade war before beginning a shooting war?
From ASSA, take a look at the first paper’s abstract:
United States-China Trade Relationships
Hosted By: CHINESE ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION IN NORTH AMERICA
- Chair: Heiwai Tang, Johns Hopkins University and Hong Kong University
“Most important global event of 2020? The US election”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
Year in Review, 2019: “Victory at IAD” and Other Alternative Facts
It’s the year that Donald Trump said that in the war against Great Britain, “Our army manned the air, it rammed the ramparts, it took over the airports, it did everything it had to do, and at Fort McHenry, under the rockets’ red glare, it had nothing but victory.”
Business Cycle Indicators, End-2019
Here are some key indicators tracked by NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee:
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2019M01=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (12/30 release), and author’s calculations.
Dispatches from the Trade Wars
Net impact on employment from Trump’s trade war and associated retaliation:
Source: Flaaen and Pierce, 2019.
Pictures from the Steel Trade War
Raw steel production is down, as is primary metal employment.