Recessions, once they are underway, happen fast — a lot faster than expansions. Who’s forecasting recessions, according to the WSJ February survey (the February Survey of Professional Forecasters has been postponed until March because of the data delays associated with the Trump government shutdown).
Continue readingDid Minnesota’s Minimum Wage Hikes Hit the Fast Food Sector Hard?
I don’t think so. But you be the judge:
Continue readingThe VSD (“Very Stable Dollar”)
Is this what we want the Chinese to peg against?
Continue readingTime Series on Term Spreads, Yield Curve Snapshots
Part of the yield curve is already inverted.
Continue readingA Primer on Exchange Rate Misalignment (Updated)
As the administration pushes for “stability” in the Chinese exchange rate while imposing tariffs on China, it might be useful to recount the various ways in which different observers define currency “misalignment”. Here I update a primer first posted in 2010.
Continue readingCrazy Definitions of Equilibrium Exchange Rates
“The Coalition for a Prosperous America” releases what it burbles as a “Groundbreaking CPA Study…” entitled “Quantifying Economic Growth and Job Creation from a Competitive Dollar”. Don’t be fooled by all the footnotes and the numbers. At the basis of the analysis is the aphorism: “Neither a borrower nor a lender be”.
Continue readingIndustrial and Manufacturing Production Decline: Whence the Business Cycle?
Interesting news even as we are flying partly blind (some government series are still lagging).
Continue readingWhy Isn’t Stephen Moore Still Bragging about Coal As #1?
Recall from July 2017, when Stephen Moore wrote an article entitled “When It Comes To Electric Power, Coal Is No. 1” ?
Continue readingThe Mystery of the Miniscule Term Spread
The Federal budget has just had a big hole blown in it, thanks to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the last omnibus spending bill, the both the Fed and foreigners (including central banks) are no longer adding to their holdings of Treasurys.
Continue readingScott Walker Lies (Yet Again)
About taxes and revenues and growth. He just can’t stop lying.
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