Consumption, personal income ex-transfers, and (for March) manufacturing and trade industry sales.
“Trump Guilty on All Counts”
From NYT and PredictIt.
Guest Contribution: “EU Carbon Border Adjustment Could Facilitate a Global Climate Solution”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared at Project Syndicate. He would like to thank Kim Clausing, Rob Stavins, and Catherine Wolfram for useful comments.
Recession Watch: In Which I Agree with ZeroHedge
From Zerohedge
Given the long lag between recessionary indicators and economic recession, it is unsurprising economists gave up anticipating a recession. However, while the recession has not happened yet, it does not mean that it still can’t. We should pay special attention to data historically correlated to economic growth.
Immigration, Recovery and Inflation
In the Fed’s recent examination of the differential recovery in the US as compared to the Euro area, UK and Canada, I was surprised that immigration did not make a bigger appearance, given my views.
How Are Households Holding Up, Debtwise?
CNN published an article today, entitled “What’s really happening in America’s economy”. Most points are conventional, but one graph was interesting – credit card debt:
“…females, they spend too much time with what’s going on in Hollywood”
That’s a quote from Eric Hovde, candidate for Wisconsin’s senator (WCPT820 Radio), who despairs about Americans’ lack of civic engagement. The entire quote:
“I like to say, sadly, with females, they spend too much time with what’s going on in Hollywood. And with males, they engross themselves too much with sports. And now it’s not just sports, it’s fantasy sports.”
Confidence, News and Sentiment in May
While (final) sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan survey remains surprisingly downbeat given observables, the decline needs to be put into context.
One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations for May
May’s final numbers from the U.Michigan survey are out. Here’s the picture of several one-year-ahead expected inflation rates.
Southwest Border Encounters, thru April
The title at Zerohedge screams “Illegals Believe Trump Is Going To Win So They’re Surging The Border Now”. I looked for data, but found none, so I checked CBP: