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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Forecasts: WSJ vs. CBO vs. Biden Troika vs. IMF

A comparison:

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This entry was posted on January 25, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

And So It Begins: Rules vs. Discretion 2025

From AP:

…on Thursday during the World Economic Forum’s annual event in Davos, Switzerland, Trump said he would reduce oil prices, and then “I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise, they should be dropping all over the world.”

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This entry was posted on January 24, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Macroeconomic Policy Lecture 1 – Graphs for 2025

Started teaching on Wednesday. Here’re some graphs in the intro lecture on macro policy (now that content is gated, and only accessible to students).

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This entry was posted on January 24, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Will the MacIver Institute Issue a Retraction to “Evers’ Economy Is a Soviet Dream”

Now that December numbers (released by DWD today) destroy the thesis that half of year-to-date cumulative employment is accounted for by government jobs, will a retraction be forthcoming? Here’s Michael Lucas’ graph running up through November, from this article:

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This entry was posted on January 23, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Why The MacIver Institute Should Be Charged with Data Abuse

In “The Evers Economy Is a Soviet Dream”, Michael Lucas writes:

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This entry was posted on January 22, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Productivity, Demand and Manufacturing Employment

Is the decline in manufacturing employment due to trade competition? Insights from a decomposition.

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This entry was posted on January 22, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Billion Dollar Disaster Cost to Year-to-Date (updated)

From NOAA to 2024, and guesstimate for January 2025:

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This entry was posted on January 21, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Economic Data Sources: A Compendium [updated]

When a purported data analyst says something strange, who you gonna call?

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This entry was posted on January 21, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

“A Recession Is Coming: Yield Curve Indication”

That’s the title of a GJ Collins article on SeekingAlpha today — but it’s not what you think it means…

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This entry was posted on January 21, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

150 Years of Ten Year Treasury Yield, 100 Years of the 10yr-3mo Spread

Reader Steven Kopits opines on the CBO projection: “by historical standards [1982-2007], we might expect the 10 year rate around 5.0% for the next decade”. I thought it useful to look at the data:

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This entry was posted on January 21, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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  • August 1, 2025: A Day that Will Live in Statistical Infamy
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